- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
PAX
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Patria Investments Ltd · Financial Services · Asset Management
Latest close
10.80 USD
-1.9%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -14.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 3.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.9%, after a -1.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 60/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 7d.
Setup score
23
out of 100
Latest Close
10.80 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-1.9%
latest completed week
4W Return
-1.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-13.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
55.8%
29 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.1x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-1.9%
Latest completed week; four-week move -1.7%.
Indicator stack
31/0
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Volatility
60/100 conviction; expected move 17.8%.
News sentiment
54/100
63 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
7d
Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -14.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 3.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.9%, after a -1.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0312-week average 0.05
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.03Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -1.7% over four weeks, -13.7% over 12 weeks, and -17.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year29
Trend breadth55.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.66Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-7934.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-25.61Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change11.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 93%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength78/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Value69/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Quality98/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Momentum17/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Growth15/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework64/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 23.9x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 4.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.5x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 12.8% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 84.7% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 33.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 62.1% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 15.2% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 3.0% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -2.0% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 17.8% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 5.7% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 3.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 8.9% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.3x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
PAX shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 2.41, expected move of 17.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction60/100
Expected move17.8%
Put/call volume2.41
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.
19 positive · 40 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move17.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-37.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher7 of 2619 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.3%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-14.8%Week of 30 Jan.
Latest week-1.9%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses14
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.6% / -3.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Financial Services
4-week rank- / 100
Group average5.2%
Trend breadth58.0%
Trend58.0%active weekly trend signals
MD88.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Asset Management
4-week rank76 / 100
Group average1.9%
Trend breadth46.0%
Trend46.0%active weekly trend signals
MD63.0%positive activity pressure
RS26.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape22/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 22/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis11/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.03; No reversal markers Factors67/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 17; Small Cap Core rank 41 SVQF64/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 262.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options65/100PAX shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 2.41, expected move of 17.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 17.8% Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.
Patria Investments Ltd (PAX) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10.80 USD | -1.9% | 12.60 USD | 12.24 USD | -0.66 | -25.61 | 4.9M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 11.01 USD | -0.4% | 12.76 USD | 12.25 USD | -0.43 | -25.88 | 3.3M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 11.05 USD | -0.5% | 12.91 USD | 12.27 USD | -0.29 | -29.20 | 3.2M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 11.10 USD | 1.0% | 13.06 USD | 12.28 USD | -0.11 | -28.13 | 3.4M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 10.99 USD | -3.3% | 13.19 USD | 12.29 USD | 0.01 | -28.82 | 5.6M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 11.37 USD | -1.6% | 13.31 USD | 12.30 USD | -0.09 | -30.20 | 3.3M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 11.55 USD | 3.6% | 13.40 USD | 12.30 USD | -0.24 | -27.82 | 3.8M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 11.15 USD | -3.8% | 13.49 USD | 12.31 USD | -0.30 | -29.25 | 5.1M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 11.59 USD | 5.2% | 13.60 USD | 12.32 USD | -0.29 | -30.27 | 4.0M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 11.02 USD | -1.6% | 13.68 USD | 12.33 USD | -0.43 | -32.24 | 3.4M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 11.20 USD | -8.2% | 13.78 USD | 12.34 USD | -0.44 | -30.83 | 6.0M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 12.19 USD | -2.5% | 13.88 USD | 12.35 USD | -0.56 | -25.42 | 7.0M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 12.51 USD | -3.1% | 13.91 USD | 12.36 USD | -0.80 | -19.66 | 3.2M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 12.90 USD | -1.9% | 13.96 USD | 12.35 USD | -0.79 | -15.98 | 3.9M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.