Ticker Options Intelligence

SJT options intelligence

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 35 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:42 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

SJT currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 7.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.30

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.4%

RS -54.2

Expected move 7.9%
Put-call volume 0.30
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.19
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 2.52
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 13

Research Brief

SJT has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.32–2.72; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range2.32–2.72
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 2.32 to 2.72. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 0.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
2.322.52 ± 0.202.72
Confirmation level

A close beyond 2.72 or below 2.32 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 35/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 65/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure65 × 42%
+27.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation13 × 22%
+2.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility45 × 10%
+4.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score34.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
61
2.50-0.8%
8
0
5.0098.4%
20
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.58× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.19 21 Aug 21d
0.54 16 Oct 77d
0.32 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

3
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A92/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
13 / 13
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

68/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $8196 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+65
1W price-0.4%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split C 35% / P 65% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 12 Aug Matched earnings event is 10 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 19 contracts traded, $4465 estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$4465
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 46 contracts traded, $2300 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$2300
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $765 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$765
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $280 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$280
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 50 contracts traded, $250 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$250

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close2.51
1W-0.4%
RS-54.2
Fair value-50.5%
Options pressure65
Speculation13
Volatility45
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.19 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.30 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:41 Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 44.4%
30 Jul 11:19 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 33.9%
30 Jul 15:02 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 02:20 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 42.0%
31 Jul 13:42 Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 7.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 8
Puts · V 11 · OI 61
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.19
Put-call5.50
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV0.54
Put-call1.27
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts5
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.04

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.44
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV-
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.02
Skew-0.23

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSJT260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.50
ContractSJT270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI4
IV0.50
ContractSJT270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume50
OI2612
IV0.25
ContractSJT270115C00002500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.50
Volume46
OI63
IV0.00
ContractSJT261016P00005000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume19
OI50
IV0.00
ContractSJT260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume11
OI61
IV0.06
ContractSJT261016C00002500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.50
Volume10
OI54
IV0.00
ContractSJT270115P00005000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume3
OI2
IV0.84