Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
ADM options intelligence
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:40 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
ADM currently carries mixed options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
8.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.85
Balanced tape
Trend fit
85
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-7.7%
RS 8.9
Expected move
8.6%
Put-call volume
0.85
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.40
Max pain
80.00
Underlying
85.92
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
374
Research Brief
ADM has a mixed chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 78.54–93.30; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00.
Priced range78.54–93.30
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference80.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 78.54 to 93.30. Max pain at 80.00 sits inside that range, 6.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
78.5485.92 ± 7.3893.30
Confirmation level
A close beyond 93.30 or below 78.54 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 14/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure14 × 42%
+5.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement85 × 26%
+22.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
47.50-44.7%
10
42
60.00-30.2%
39
79
65.00-24.3%
18
528
67.50-21.4%
22
561
70.00-18.5%
29
112
72.50-15.6%
48
255
75.00-12.7%
217
210
77.50-9.8%
196
928
80.00-6.9%
2056
691
82.50-4.0%
1539
217
85.00-1.1%
1900
92
87.501.8%
757
10
90.004.7%
1570
0
92.507.7%
1357
0
95.0010.6%
1362
2
100.0016.4%
69
0
105.0022.2%
66
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.40
21 Aug
21d
0.35
18 Sep
49d
0.34
16 Oct
77d
0.33
18 Dec
140d
0.32
15 Jan
168d
0.34
19 Mar
231d
0.34
17 Jun
321d
0.34
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
70
73
75
78
80
83
85
88
90
93
95
100
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 374 / 374
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.0M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+14
1W price-7.7%
Call premium67%
Put premium33%
Notional split
C 67% / P 33%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
85/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 702 contracts traded, $1.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$1.6M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 713 contracts traded, $341566 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$341566
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 198 contracts traded, $216870 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$216870
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 117 contracts traded, $200550 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$200550
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 464 contracts traded, $127470 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$127470
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close79.27
1W-7.7%
RS8.9
Fair value+33.4%
Options pressure14
Speculation41
Volatility63
Trend fit85
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:12
Bullish
Pressure 64
Move 7.5%
30 Jul 10:07
Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 8.7%
31 Jul 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 85
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 17:05
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 19:14
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 8.5%
31 Jul 19:40
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 8.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 9
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 5
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 3
Strike47.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 10
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 13
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 23
Strike60.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 39
Puts · V 4 · OI 42
Strike65.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 18
Puts · V 9 · OI 79
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts39
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.36
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.35
Put-call3.47
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.90
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.56
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV0.32
Put-call1.20
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.39
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.01
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractADM261218P00032500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike32.50
Volume-
OI30
IV0.93
ContractADM270319C00125000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike125.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.38
ContractADM270617C00050000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.51
ContractADM270319P00095000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.00
ContractADM261016P00040000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.63
ContractADM261016C00075000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.38
ContractADM270617P00095000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.31
ContractADM270617C00080000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.37
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.