ADM NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · Consumer Defensive · Farm Products

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Latest close 79.27 USD
-7.7% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 8.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 74.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -7.7%, after a 3.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 43/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 63/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 67 out of 100
Latest Close 79.27 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -7.7% latest completed week
4W Return 3.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 2.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.3x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 58-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 5 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -7.7% Latest completed week; four-week move 3.2%. Indicator stack 100/78 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 43/100 conviction; expected move 8.6%. News sentiment 63/100 7 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 8.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 74.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -7.7%, after a 3.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.3x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8112-week average 0.88

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.81Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers55 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 5 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 3.2% over four weeks, 2.8% over 12 weeks, and 51.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 58 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-7.7%
4W3.2%
12W2.8%
26W19.5%
52W51.9%
Active trend streak58 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.79Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change168.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership8.87Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change11.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength75/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Value68/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Quality23/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Momentum88/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 13; rank 1 is best.
Growth3/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 98; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework16/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
38.3x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
13.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
13.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
5.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
2.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
8.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
4.8%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-3.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-20.9%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
116.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.4%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

ADM shows mixed options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.85, expected move of 8.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction43/100
Expected move8.6%
Put/call volume0.85
Pressure14
Speculation41
Volatility63
Trend agreement85
Open options detail
Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment63/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 7 relevant articles.

4 positive · 3 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-10.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.2%Week of 27 Mar.
Worst week-8.1%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-7.7%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains9
Flat weeks1
Modest losses6
Sharp losses4
Recent vol4.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split30/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.6% / -3.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape71/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 71/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis80/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.81; 5 reversal markers Factors62/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 62 SVQF16/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 853.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options58/100

ADM shows mixed options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.85, expected move of 8.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 8.6% Sentiment63/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 7 relevant articles.

ADM to boost oilseed crushing capacity to meet strong biofuels demand (NYSE:ADM) Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow2 items

1 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202679.27 USD-7.7%73.07 USD59.44 USD0.798.8724.3MOn
24 Jul 202685.92 USD0.0%72.37 USD59.43 USD0.5819.7915.4MOn
17 Jul 202685.90 USD6.8%71.41 USD59.38 USD0.3719.8014.0MOn
10 Jul 202680.41 USD4.7%70.46 USD59.30 USD0.1111.0917.2MOn
3 Jul 202676.79 USD0.0%69.75 USD59.24 USD0.307.9811.4MOn
26 Jun 202676.79 USD2.3%69.13 USD59.20 USD0.7110.6820.6MOn
19 Jun 202675.10 USD-6.4%68.57 USD59.15 USD0.856.1618.1MOn
12 Jun 202680.24 USD-0.8%67.99 USD59.09 USD1.0614.7615.1MOn
5 Jun 202680.92 USD1.4%67.23 USD59.01 USD1.1116.9316.9MOn
29 May 202679.78 USD2.9%66.39 USD58.92 USD1.1013.1516.8MOn
22 May 202677.52 USD-2.9%65.70 USD58.82 USD0.9712.1217.0MOn
15 May 202679.86 USD3.5%65.18 USD58.75 USD0.6317.0819.1MOn
8 May 202677.14 USD3.6%64.58 USD58.66 USD0.2213.9528.2MOn
1 May 202674.44 USD8.2%63.99 USD58.60 USD-0.0213.0522.0MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.