- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
AGRO
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Adecoagro SA · Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Latest close
10.58 USD
5.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 41.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.1%, after a 12.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 18d.
Setup score
40
out of 100
Latest Close
10.58 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
5.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
12.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-23.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
34.6%
18 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
5.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move 12.4%.
Indicator stack
19/29
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Mixed
40/100 conviction; expected move 15.6%.
News sentiment
58/100
50 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
18d
Next report is scheduled for 17 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 41.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.1%, after a 12.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3612-week average 0.72
12-week confirmation
Trend active7/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.36Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 12.4% over four weeks, -23.3% over 12 weeks, and 15.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year18
Trend breadth34.6%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.09Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-17.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership1.92Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change122.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength59/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 42; rank 1 is best.
Value82/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 19; rank 1 is best.
Quality16/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
Momentum34/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Growth4/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework22/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 107.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.9x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 14.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 25.2% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 11.2% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 35.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 1.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -5.2% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -77.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -30.3% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 2/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.1% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 1.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 4.4x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningMixed
AGRO shows mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.70, expected move of 15.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction40/100
Expected move15.6%
Put/call volume1.70
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment58/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.
21 positive · 26 neutral · 3 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings18dNext report is scheduled for 17 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move15.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-32.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+30.4%Week of 20 Mar.
Worst week-20.7%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week+5.1%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains8
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses6
Recent vol7.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.7% / -4.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Defensive
4-week rank6 / 100
Group average-0.3%
Trend breadth49.0%
Trend49.0%active weekly trend signals
MD58.0%positive activity pressure
RS33.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Farm Products
4-week rank3 / 17
Group average-0.2%
Trend breadth29.4%
Trend29.4%active weekly trend signals
MD41.2%positive activity pressure
RS23.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape37/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 37/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis48/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 7/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 7/12.
Activity pressure 0.36; No reversal markers Factors47/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 70; Small Cap Core rank 27 SVQF22/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 792.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options57/100AGRO shows mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.70, expected move of 15.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 15.6% Sentiment58/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.
Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Stock Price Up 5.9% - What's Next? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings18dNext report is scheduled for 17 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10.58 USD | 5.1% | 10.91 USD | 9.72 USD | -1.09 | 1.92 | 3.4M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 10.07 USD | -2.3% | 10.82 USD | 9.72 USD | -1.18 | -3.60 | 3.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 10.31 USD | 7.0% | 10.73 USD | 9.71 USD | -1.15 | -3.00 | 3.8M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 9.64 USD | 2.4% | 10.62 USD | 9.70 USD | -1.06 | -8.21 | 2.7M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 9.41 USD | 1.8% | 10.57 USD | 9.70 USD | -0.92 | -8.68 | 4.1M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 9.24 USD | -20.7% | 10.52 USD | 9.69 USD | -0.73 | -12.65 | 5.9M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 11.65 USD | 2.0% | 10.47 USD | 9.69 USD | -0.46 | 10.69 | 4.9M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 11.42 USD | -5.9% | 10.33 USD | 9.67 USD | -0.18 | 9.19 | 3.7M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 12.13 USD | -5.3% | 10.23 USD | 9.65 USD | 0.14 | 13.16 | 2.8M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 12.81 USD | -2.3% | 10.08 USD | 9.63 USD | 0.48 | 21.35 | 3.6M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 13.11 USD | -0.2% | 9.91 USD | 9.60 USD | 0.68 | 25.47 | 5.9M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 13.13 USD | -4.8% | 9.72 USD | 9.57 USD | 0.82 | 26.38 | 6.8M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 13.79 USD | 8.8% | 9.52 USD | 9.53 USD | 1.13 | 36.27 | 6.4M | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 12.68 USD | 2.5% | 9.32 USD | 9.49 USD | 1.42 | 27.14 | 6.5M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.