- The trend backdrop is active with a 2-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
TAL
NYSE
Week ended 11 Sep 2026
Weekly Investor Report
TAL Education Group · Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
Latest close
11.81 USD
-4.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 8.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 65.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.8%, after a 1.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 40d.
Setup score
50
out of 100
Latest Close
11.81 USD
11 Sep 2026
1W Return
-4.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
1.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
28.5%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
42.3%
22 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.0x
vs 13-week average
- No major top-level risk cluster is currently dominant.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move 1.4%.
Indicator stack
30/72
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Bullish
40/100 conviction; expected move 3.4%.
News sentiment
51/100
12 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
40d
Next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 8.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 65.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.8%, after a 1.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4912-week average 0.20
12-week confirmation
Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership3/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.49Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 1.4% over four weeks, 28.5% over 12 weeks, and 7.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 2 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak2 weeks
Active weeks in one year22
Trend breadth42.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.05Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change37.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-2.48Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change57.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 11 Sep 2026
Financial statements through 31 May 2026
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 95%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength88/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 13; rank 1 is best.
Value92/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 9; rank 1 is best.
Quality85/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Momentum31/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 70; rank 1 is best.
Growth97/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework77/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 7.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 9.7% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 56.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 12.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 16.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 10.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 32.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 770.3% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -18.3% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -1.6x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
TAL shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.37, expected move of 3.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction40/100
Expected move3.4%
Put/call volume0.37
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 12 relevant articles.
6 positive · 6 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings40dNext report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move3.4%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-11.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
20 Mar
17 Apr
15 May
12 Jun
10 Jul
7 Aug
11 Sep
Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+21.4%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-11.1%Week of 24 Apr.
Latest week-4.8%Week of 11 Sep.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses5
Recent vol6.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.3% / -3.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Defensive
4-week rank21 / 100
Group average-3.2%
Trend breadth46.0%
Trend46.0%active weekly trend signals
MD60.0%positive activity pressure
RS23.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Education & Training Services
4-week rank9 / 33
Group average-2.9%
Trend breadth21.2%
Trend21.2%active weekly trend signals
MD51.5%positive activity pressure
RS6.1%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape45/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 45/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis37/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 3/12.
Activity pressure 0.49; No reversal markers Factors75/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 74; Small Cap Core rank 23 SVQF77/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 230.5 of 1017 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options52/100TAL shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.37, expected move of 3.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 3.4% Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 12 relevant articles.
Avoiding Lag: Real-Time Signals in (TAL) Movement Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings40dNext report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 11.81 USD | -4.8% | 10.88 USD | 10.97 USD | 1.05 | -2.48 | 22.3M | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 12.40 USD | 3.9% | 10.86 USD | 10.94 USD | 1.06 | 1.43 | 41.1M | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 11.94 USD | 5.5% | 10.86 USD | 10.91 USD | 1.09 | -2.20 | 25.8M | Off |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 11.32 USD | -2.8% | 10.89 USD | 10.88 USD | 1.16 | -6.96 | 19.2M | Off |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 11.65 USD | -5.9% | 10.88 USD | 10.85 USD | 0.77 | -5.82 | 18.2M | Off |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 12.38 USD | -1.0% | 10.86 USD | 10.82 USD | 0.48 | 0.13 | 32.2M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 12.50 USD | 21.4% | 10.82 USD | 10.78 USD | -0.09 | 4.38 | 42.2M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10.30 USD | 0.6% | 10.78 USD | 10.75 USD | -0.74 | -13.11 | 13.4M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 10.24 USD | -0.7% | 10.81 USD | 10.74 USD | -0.86 | -14.32 | 17.4M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 10.31 USD | 5.1% | 10.83 USD | 10.71 USD | -1.13 | -15.42 | 12.4M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 9.81 USD | 3.5% | 10.87 USD | 10.68 USD | -1.36 | -18.75 | 12.2M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 9.48 USD | 3.2% | 10.92 USD | 10.66 USD | -1.48 | -20.07 | 19.0M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 9.19 USD | -0.8% | 10.97 USD | 10.64 USD | -1.50 | -24.76 | 21.0M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 9.26 USD | -3.1% | 11.03 USD | 10.61 USD | -1.49 | -23.96 | 13.8M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.