Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TAL options intelligence
TAL Education Group options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 13:38 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
TAL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 23.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
23.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.24
Call-side skew
Trend fit
16
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+21.4%
RS 4.4
Expected move
23.3%
Put-call volume
0.24
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.30
Max pain
11.00
Underlying
10.30
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
200
Research Brief
TAL has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.90–12.70; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 13.00.
Priced range7.90–12.70
Call concentration12.00
Put concentration9.00
Max pain reference11.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 7.90 to 12.70. Max pain at 11.00 sits inside that range, 6.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
7.9010.30 ± 2.4012.70
Confirmation level
A close beyond 12.70 or below 7.90 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 55/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure55 × 42%
+23.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement16 × 26%
+4.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility61 × 10%
+6.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 13.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
3.00-70.9%
3
0
4.00-61.2%
7
10
5.00-51.5%
1
100
7.00-32.0%
1
190
8.00-22.3%
12
26374
9.00-12.6%
234
1026
10.00-2.9%
432
923
11.006.8%
2198
218
12.0016.5%
11287
69
13.0026.2%
926
19
14.0035.9%
379
1
15.0045.6%
97
0
16.0055.3%
125
18
17.0065.0%
9
0
18.0074.8%
8
0
19.0084.5%
5
0
20.0094.2%
18
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.30
21 Aug
22d
0.41
18 Sep
50d
0.49
20 Nov
113d
0.43
15 Jan
169d
0.34
19 Feb
204d
0.45
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
9
10
11
12
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 200 / 200
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $242818 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+55
1W price+21.4%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split
C 91% / P 9%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
16/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1771 contracts traded, $119860 estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$119860
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 333 contracts traded, $48882 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$48882
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 121 contracts traded, $36518 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$36518
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 284 contracts traded, $15600 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$15600
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $8778 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$8778
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close12.50
1W+21.4%
RS4.4
Fair value+15.9%
Options pressure55
Speculation41
Volatility61
Trend fit16
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:36
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 12.6%
30 Jul 08:43
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 18.2%
31 Jul 12:38
Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 23.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 12
Puts · V 1 · OI 190
Strike9.00
Calls · V 86 · OI 234
Puts · V 0 · OI 26374
Strike10.00
Calls · V 35 · OI 432
Puts · V 45 · OI 1026
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.07
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.41
Put-call5.16
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.96
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.19
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.43
Skew0.30
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.09
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.47
Skew0.08
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.48
Skew0.01
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.15
Skew-0.37
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTAL260821C00013000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike13.00
Volume797
OI926
IV0.13
ContractTAL260821C00011000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike11.00
Volume539
OI2198
IV0.41
ContractTAL260821C00012000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.00
Volume433
OI11287
IV0.35
ContractTAL260918P00012000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.00
Volume283
OI-
IV0.41
ContractTAL270115C00013000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike13.00
Volume120
OI8
IV0.42
ContractTAL261120P00010000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume100
OI335
IV0.47
ContractTAL260821C00009000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume86
OI234
IV0.01
ContractTAL260821P00012000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.00
Volume47
OI218
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.