Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PLOW options intelligence
Douglas Dynamics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 09:33 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PLOW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
9.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.02
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.5%
RS 13.2
Expected move
9.0%
Put-call volume
0.02
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.41
Max pain
45.00
Underlying
46.18
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
92
Research Brief
PLOW has a bullish chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 42.03–50.33; The largest call open-interest concentration is 45.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.
Priced range42.03–50.33
Call concentration45.00
Put concentration45.00
Max pain reference45.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 42.03 to 50.33. Max pain at 45.00 sits inside that range, 2.6% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
42.0346.18 ± 4.1550.33
Confirmation level
A close beyond 50.33 or below 42.03 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation3 × 22%
+0.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 45.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
15
17.50-62.1%
0
0
20.00-56.7%
0
0
22.50-51.3%
0
1
25.00-45.9%
0
0
30.00-35.0%
1
0
35.00-24.2%
14
19
40.00-13.4%
47
111
45.00-2.6%
2121
24
50.008.3%
612
2
55.0019.1%
178
0
60.0029.9%
11
0
65.0040.8%
1
0
70.0051.6%
0
0
75.0062.4%
18
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.41
21 Aug
22d
0.47
18 Sep
50d
0.38
20 Nov
113d
0.38
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
40
45
50
55
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 92 / 92
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $19974 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+3.5%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
3 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $10125 estimated gross traded notional, and 51% of visible notional.
$10125
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $4265 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$4265
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 46 contracts traded, $2274 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$2274
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $1980 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1980
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $700 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$700
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close46.18
1W+3.5%
RS13.2
Fair value+59.4%
Options pressure100
Speculation3
Volatility65
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:13
Volatility
Pressure 93
Move 11.5%
30 Jul 11:00
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 08:33
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 47
Puts · V 2 · OI 19
Strike45.00
Calls · V 75 · OI 2121
Puts · V 0 · OI 111
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.05
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.56
Skew0.29
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.57
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.47
Skew0.03
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.53
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPLOW260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume75
OI2121
IV0.52
ContractPLOW260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume45
OI612
IV0.27
ContractPLOW260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume18
OI80
IV0.52
ContractPLOW270219C00050000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike50.00
Volume15
OI103
IV0.36
ContractPLOW261120C00050000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike50.00
Volume3
OI38
IV0.44
ContractPLOW260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume2
OI148
IV0.45
ContractPLOW260821P00040000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume2
OI19
IV0.56
ContractPLOW260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1
OI178
IV0.41
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.