Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
PBF options intelligence
PBF Energy Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
58
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:35 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
PBF currently carries volatility options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
14.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.19
Call-side skew
Trend fit
51
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+17.3%
RS 80.1
Expected move
14.2%
Put-call volume
0.19
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.75
Max pain
60.00
Underlying
72.28
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
574
Research Brief
PBF has a volatility chain read with 58/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 62.03–82.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00.
Priced range62.03–82.53
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration60.00
Max pain reference60.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 62.03 to 82.53. Max pain at 60.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
62.0372.28 ± 10.2582.53
Confirmation level
A close beyond 82.53 or below 62.03 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 58/100
Pressure is 75/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure75 × 42%
+31.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation16 × 22%
+3.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility93 × 10%
+9.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
293
35.00-51.6%
1
42
39.00-46.0%
10
26
40.00-44.7%
47
3
42.00-41.9%
37
45
43.00-40.5%
30
142
45.00-37.7%
55
17
46.00-36.4%
55
50
47.00-35.0%
14
40
48.00-33.6%
66
371
50.00-30.8%
649
111
55.00-23.9%
1134
2231
60.00-17.0%
4892
452
65.00-10.1%
4788
137
70.00-3.2%
3372
56
75.003.8%
5073
301
80.0010.7%
4517
42
85.0017.6%
194
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.75
21 Aug
21d
0.70
18 Sep
49d
0.69
18 Dec
140d
0.68
15 Jan
168d
0.68
19 Mar
231d
0.67
21 May
294d
0.66
20 Aug
385d
0.67
19 Nov
476d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
60
65
70
75
80
85
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 574 / 574
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+75
1W price+17.3%
Call premium94%
Put premium6%
Notional split
C 94% / P 6%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
51/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 345 contracts traded, $367480 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$367480
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 421 contracts traded, $232722 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$232722
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 413 contracts traded, $178095 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$178095
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 53 contracts traded, $149520 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$149520
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $40640 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$40640
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close72.28
1W+17.3%
RS80.1
Fair value+104.4%
Options pressure75
Speculation16
Volatility93
Trend fit51
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:40
Volatility
Pressure 36
Move 16.0%
30 Jul 10:36
Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 17.8%
31 Jul 11:08
Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 25.2%
2 Aug 18:35
Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 14.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike24.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike32.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 293
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.27
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.70
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.69
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts90
Avg IV0.68
Put-call0.19
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.68
Put-call2.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.75
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.69
Put IV0.76
Skew0.07
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.75
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.72
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.72
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPBF260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume407
OI5073
IV0.79
ContractPBF260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume364
OI484
IV0.65
ContractPBF260821C00065000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume204
OI4788
IV0.65
ContractPBF260821P00060000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume102
OI2231
IV0.79
ContractPBF260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume86
OI3372
IV0.70
ContractPBF260821P00065000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume40
OI452
IV0.75
ContractPBF260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume40
OI35
IV0.69
ContractPBF280121C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike40.00
Volume27
OI564
IV0.63
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.