Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
CWT options intelligence
California Water Service Group options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 16:21 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
CWT currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.25.
Expected move
9.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.25
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.26
Put-side skew
Trend fit
98
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-1.2%
RS 1.3
Expected move
9.6%
Put-call volume
1.26
Volume / OI
0.25
Reference IV
0.73
Max pain
50.00
Underlying
50.72
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
26
Research Brief
CWT has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 45.87–55.57; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.
Priced range45.87–55.57
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference50.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 45.87 to 55.57. Max pain at 50.00 sits inside that range, 1.4% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
45.8750.72 ± 4.8555.57
Confirmation level
A close beyond 55.57 or below 45.87 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 7/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure7 × 42%
+3.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation18 × 22%
+3.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility90 × 10%
+9.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
50.00-1.4%
39
0
55.008.4%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.73
21 Aug
22d
0.60
18 Sep
50d
0.46
18 Dec
141d
0.40
19 Mar
232d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
50
55
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 26 / 26
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9236 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-7
1W price-1.2%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split
C 83% / P 17%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.25
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
98/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2940 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$2940
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2506 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$2506
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1485 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$1485
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $940 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$940
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $462 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$462
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close50.11
1W-1.2%
RS1.3
Fair value+8.6%
Options pressure-7
Speculation18
Volatility90
Trend fit98
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:56
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 10:46
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 15:21
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 9.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 39
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.73
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.60
Put-call1.54
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.60
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.57
Skew-0.19
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.68
Skew-0.18
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.69
Skew0.19
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCWT261218P00040000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.58
ContractCWT270319C00055000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.40
ContractCWT261218C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.51
ContractCWT260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.77
ContractCWT261218C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.00
ContractCWT261218C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.62
ContractCWT260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractCWT260918P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.55
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.