Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
NVMI options intelligence
Nova Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 03:02 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
NVMI currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
18.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
2.17
Put-side skew
Trend fit
94
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-10.8%
RS -9.9
Expected move
18.1%
Put-call volume
2.17
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.95
Max pain
450.00
Underlying
390.87
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
624
Research Brief
NVMI has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 319.97–461.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 490.00; the largest put concentration is 420.00. The most active strike by current volume is 480.00.
Priced range319.97–461.77
Call concentration490.00
Put concentration420.00
Max pain reference450.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 319.97 to 461.77. Max pain at 450.00 sits inside that range, 15.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
319.97390.87 ± 70.90461.77
Confirmation level
A close beyond 461.77 or below 319.97 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 34/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure34 × 42%
+14.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement94 × 26%
+24.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 490.00; the largest put concentration is 420.00. The most active strike by current volume is 480.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
156
340.00-13.0%
27
28
360.00-7.9%
63
115
370.00-5.3%
5
118
380.00-2.8%
44
130
390.00-0.2%
1
80
400.002.3%
7
226
420.007.5%
2
72
440.0012.6%
185
183
460.0017.7%
7
130
470.0020.2%
16
11
480.0022.8%
59
3
490.0025.4%
375
19
500.0027.9%
219
1
550.0040.7%
250
84
560.0043.3%
16
0
580.0048.4%
107
0
660.0068.9%
88
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.95
21 Aug
21d
0.87
18 Sep
49d
0.83
20 Nov
112d
0.81
18 Dec
140d
0.80
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 624 / 624
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-34
1W price-10.8%
Call premium20%
Put premium80%
Notional split
C 20% / P 80%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
94/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 117 contracts traded, $987810 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$987810
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 84 contracts traded, $344160 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$344160
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 72 contracts traded, $237140 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$237140
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 44 contracts traded, $140525 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$140525
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $62480 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$62480
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close390.87
1W-10.8%
RS-9.9
Fair value+51.5%
Options pressure-34
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit94
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:21
Volatility
Pressure -51
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 10:15
Bullish
Pressure 24
Move 22.5%
31 Jul 10:07
Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 19.2%
1 Aug 01:59
Volatility
Pressure -34
Move 19.2%
2 Aug 02:02
Volatility
Pressure -34
Move 18.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts156
Avg IV0.95
Put-call0.29
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.87
Put-call2.75
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts116
Avg IV0.83
Put-call14.33
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.81
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts126
Avg IV0.80
Put-call0.60
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.97
Put IV0.97
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.87
Put IV0.89
Skew0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.84
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.82
Skew0.02
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.81
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNVMI260918P00450000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike450.00
Volume114
OI-
IV0.84
ContractNVMI260918P00380000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike380.00
Volume81
OI172
IV0.86
ContractNVMI260918C00450000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike450.00
Volume44
OI1
IV0.87
ContractNVMI261120P00310000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike310.00
Volume39
OI97
IV0.85
ContractNVMI260918C00420000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike420.00
Volume28
OI3
IV0.86
ContractNVMI260821C00480000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike480.00
Volume12
OI59
IV0.97
ContractNVMI260821C00770000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike770.00
Volume9
OI49
IV0.83
ContractNVMI261218C00660000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike660.00
Volume6
OI100
IV0.79
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.