Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
HOG options intelligence
Harley-Davidson Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
42
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 08:22 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
HOG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
5.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.42
Call-side skew
Trend fit
66
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-3.7%
RS -4.4
Expected move
5.4%
Put-call volume
0.42
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.40
Max pain
25.00
Underlying
25.49
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
556
Research Brief
HOG has a bullish chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.12–26.86; The largest call open-interest concentration is 26.50; the largest put concentration is 23.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.
Priced range24.12–26.86
Call concentration26.50
Put concentration23.50
Max pain reference25.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 24.12 to 26.86. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 1.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
24.1225.49 ± 1.3726.86
Confirmation level
A close beyond 26.86 or below 24.12 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 42/100
Pressure is 38/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure38 × 42%
+16.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation16 × 22%
+3.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement66 × 26%
+17.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 26.50; the largest put concentration is 23.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
11
19.00-25.5%
1
7
20.00-21.5%
2
58
21.00-17.6%
1
23
22.00-13.7%
2
26
22.50-11.7%
0
64
23.00-9.8%
1
145
23.50-7.8%
0
27
25.00-1.9%
45
2
25.500.0%
9
10
26.002.0%
36
0
26.504.0%
155
30
27.005.9%
19
13
28.009.8%
5
1
29.0013.8%
7
0
29.5015.7%
11
0
30.0017.7%
34
0
31.0021.6%
21
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.40
7 Aug
7d
0.41
14 Aug
14d
0.41
21 Aug
21d
0.40
28 Aug
28d
0.41
4 Sep
35d
0.38
11 Sep
42d
0.42
18 Sep
49d
0.44
20 Nov
112d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
21
22
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 556 / 556
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $18418 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 0-7 days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+38
1W price-3.7%
Call premium56%
Put premium44%
Notional split
C 56% / P 44%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
66/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 27 contracts traded, $3632 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$3632
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 27 contracts traded, $1568 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1568
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 156 contracts traded, $1430 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1430
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $1350 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1350
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $1315 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1315
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close24.54
1W-3.7%
RS-4.4
Fair value-11.9%
Options pressure38
Speculation16
Volatility50
Trend fit66
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:57
Bearish
Pressure -71
Move 3.3%
30 Jul 13:24
Bearish
Pressure -72
Move 4.5%
31 Jul 13:08
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 4.6%
31 Jul 14:40
Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 18:22
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 6.2%
1 Aug 07:22
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 5.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 58
Strike21.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.40
Put-call1.32
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.41
Put-call2.83
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.03
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.67
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.41
Put-call1.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.43
Skew0.04
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.41
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.03
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.42
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.42
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractHOG260821C00029500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike29.50
Volume130
OI137
IV0.34
ContractHOG260807P00026000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike26.00
Volume20
OI10
IV0.30
ContractHOG260807C00025000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume19
OI45
IV0.40
ContractHOG260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume13
OI420
IV0.40
ContractHOG260821C00026000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike26.00
Volume13
OI356
IV0.40
ContractHOG260807P00022500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume11
OI26
IV0.50
ContractHOG260807C00025500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike25.50
Volume11
OI9
IV0.40
ContractHOG260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume10
OI606
IV0.37
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.