Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TMFC options intelligence
MOTLEY FOOL 100 INDEX ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 21:21 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
TMFC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.58.
Expected move
6.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.58
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.01
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.6%
RS -0.7
Expected move
6.7%
Put-call volume
0.01
Volume / OI
0.58
Reference IV
0.50
Max pain
73.00
Underlying
77.38
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
24
Research Brief
TMFC has a bullish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 72.18–82.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 77.00; the largest put concentration is 77.00. The most active strike by current volume is 77.00.
Priced range72.18–82.58
Call concentration77.00
Put concentration77.00
Max pain reference73.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 72.18 to 82.58. Max pain at 73.00 sits inside that range, 5.7% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
72.1877.38 ± 5.2082.58
Confirmation level
A close beyond 82.58 or below 72.18 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation22 × 22%
+4.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility62 × 10%
+6.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 77.00; the largest put concentration is 77.00. The most active strike by current volume is 77.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
73.00-5.7%
10
0
74.00-4.4%
10
0
75.00-3.1%
4
3
77.00-0.5%
72
0
78.000.8%
1
0
79.002.1%
1
0
80.003.4%
4
0
82.006.0%
11
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$34,264Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak77.00+$18,965
Negative peak76.00-$1,077
Nearest balance76.05Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
70.00-9.5%
-$356
72.00-7.0%
-$472
73.00-5.7%
+$2,062
74.00-4.4%
+$2,414
75.00-3.1%
+$967
76.00-1.8%
-$1,077
77.00-0.5%
+$18,965
78.000.8%
+$3,310
79.002.1%
+$305
80.003.4%
+$3,182
81.004.7%
+$848
82.006.0%
+$4,116
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.50
21 Aug
17d
0.35
18 Sep
45d
0.28
16 Oct
73d
0.34
15 Jan
164d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
73
74
75
77
78
79
80
82
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 24 / 24
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Directional flow, confirmation needed
There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Directional flow, confirmation needed matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $37,056 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+2.6%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.58
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 71 contracts traded, $28,045 estimated gross traded notional, and 76% of visible notional.
$28,045
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $4,110 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$4,110
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2,240 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2,240
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1,605 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1,605
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $495 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$495
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close77.38
1W+2.6%
RS-0.7
Fair value+31.5%
Options pressure100
Speculation22
Volatility62
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:17
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 5.8%
30 Jul 13:06
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 12:42
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.4%
3 Aug 13:22
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.7%
3 Aug 21:35
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.9%
4 Aug 20:21
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike73.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike74.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike77.00
Calls · V 71 · OI 72
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike78.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike79.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike82.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.01
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts3
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.45
Skew0.11
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.36
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.36
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTMFC260821C00074000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike74.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.58
ContractTMFC260821C00073000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike73.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.67
ContractTMFC261016P00076000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike76.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.36
ContractTMFC270115P00072000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike72.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.36
ContractTMFC261016P00070000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.44
ContractTMFC261016C00080000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.31
ContractTMFC260821C00078000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike78.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.47
ContractTMFC260918C00076000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike76.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.