Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CAR options intelligence
Avis Budget Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
64
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 07:43 · partial chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CAR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 64/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
6.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
4.18
Put-side skew
Trend fit
70
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-13.8%
RS -18.8
Expected move
6.3%
Put-call volume
4.18
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.74
Max pain
155.00
Underlying
159.48
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
CAR has a volatility chain read with 64/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 149.38–169.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 170.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 157.50.
Priced range149.38–169.58
Call concentration170.00
Put concentration100.00
Max pain reference155.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 149.38 to 169.58. Max pain at 155.00 sits inside that range, 2.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
149.38159.48 ± 10.10169.58
Confirmation level
A close beyond 169.58 or below 149.38 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 64/100
Pressure is 68/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure68 × 42%
+28.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 170.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 157.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
512
100.00-37.3%
15
114
125.00-21.6%
1
201
130.00-18.5%
13
151
135.00-15.3%
7
141
140.00-12.2%
7
176
145.00-9.1%
16
132
150.00-5.9%
211
39
152.50-4.4%
105
310
155.00-2.8%
316
45
157.50-1.2%
57
48
160.000.3%
36
32
162.501.9%
108
48
165.003.5%
60
6
170.006.6%
508
3
190.0019.1%
128
1
200.0025.4%
392
0
275.0072.4%
117
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.74
31 Jul
1d
0.56
7 Aug
8d
0.57
14 Aug
15d
0.57
21 Aug
22d
0.62
28 Aug
29d
0.59
4 Sep
36d
0.58
11 Sep
43d
0.54
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
128
130
132
134
136
138
139
141
143
145
147
149
153
158
163
165
170
175
180
185
190
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain56%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 3546
- 56% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $111.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-68
1W price-13.8%
Call premium1%
Put premium99%
Notional split
C 1% / P 99%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
70/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3727 contracts traded, $102.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 91% of visible notional.
$102.2M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 160 contracts traded, $7.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$7.0M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 56 contracts traded, $858795 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$858795
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1770 contracts traded, $573222 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$573222
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 88 contracts traded, $338520 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$338520
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close137.44
1W-13.8%
RS-18.8
Fair value+2.4%
Options pressure-68
Speculation42
Volatility77
Trend fit70
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:37
Volatility
Pressure -16
Move 10.1%
30 Jul 10:33
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 5.9%
30 Jul 19:57
Volatility
Pressure -34
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 20:20
Volatility
Pressure -34
Move 6.3%
31 Jul 06:43
Volatility
Pressure -68
Move 6.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 512
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 26
Strike107.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike108.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike109.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts178
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.82
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts158
Avg IV0.56
Put-call1.73
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts148
Avg IV0.57
Put-call164.60
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts276
Avg IV0.57
Put-call3.59
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.13
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.68
Put IV1.06
Skew-0.62
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.57
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.88
Put IV0.62
Skew-0.26
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.59
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.57
Skew-0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCAR261016P00380000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike380.00
Volume1480
OI501
IV1.32
ContractCAR260821P00140000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume850
OI1588
IV0.59
ContractCAR260814P00140000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume818
OI4
IV0.62
ContractCAR260918P00650000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike650.00
Volume724
OI241
IV2.22
ContractCAR261016P00370000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike370.00
Volume444
OI148
IV1.10
ContractCAR260828C00230000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume354
OI415
IV0.48
ContractCAR260918P00300000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike300.00
Volume320
OI320
IV0.01
ContractCAR260904C00230000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike230.00
Volume314
OI314
IV0.81
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.