Ticker Options Intelligence

LBTYA options intelligence

Liberty Global PLC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 32 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 02:50 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

LBTYA currently carries mixed options pressure with a 32/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 24.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 24.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.78

Balanced tape

Trend fit 50

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +9.5%

RS -15.5

Expected move 24.6%
Put-call volume 0.78
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.00
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.69
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 140

Research Brief

LBTYA has a mixed chain read with 32/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.31–12.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range7.31–12.07
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 7.31 to 12.07. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 3.2% above spot.

Spot Max pain
7.319.69 ± 2.3812.07
Confirmation level

A close beyond 12.07 or below 7.31 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 32/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 17/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement50 × 26%
+13.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score31.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-74.2%
0
3
5.00-48.4%
0
0
7.50-22.6%
0
156
10.003.2%
265
15
12.5029.0%
1904
0
15.0054.8%
0
0
17.5080.6%
0
0
20.00106.4%
0
0
22.50132.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.79× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.00 21 Aug 22d
0.67 18 Sep 50d
0.41 16 Oct 78d
0.37 18 Dec 141d
0.39 15 Jan 169d
0.32 16 Apr 260d
0.36 15 Oct 442d
0.36 17 Dec 505d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
140 / 140
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

68/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $86190 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+17
1W price+9.5%
Call premium79%
Put premium21%
Notional split C 79% / P 21% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 50/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 516 contracts traded, $45342 estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$45342
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 135 contracts traded, $22935 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$22935
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 500 contracts traded, $17500 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$17500
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $412 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$412

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close10.61
1W+9.5%
RS-15.5
Fair value+1.6%
Options pressure17
Speculation8
Volatility96
Trend fit50

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 24.6% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.00 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.78 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:44 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.3%
30 Jul 10:40 Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 10.1%
31 Jul 01:50 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 24.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 265
Puts · V 0 · OI 156
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1904
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV1.00
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.99
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.08

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.66
Skew0.28
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.43
Skew0.20
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.02
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.27
Skew-0.15
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.25
Skew-0.15

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractLBTYA260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume505
OI508
IV0.41
ContractLBTYA260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume500
OI510
IV0.38
ContractLBTYA271015C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Oct 2027
Strike10.00
Volume55
OI27512
IV0.45
ContractLBTYA270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume53
OI72
IV0.42
ContractLBTYA261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume11
OI310
IV0.41
ContractLBTYA270416C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike12.50
Volume10
OI25
IV0.40
ContractLBTYA270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume6
OI1581
IV0.40
ContractLBTYA261218C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume5
OI1540
IV0.41