Ticker Options Intelligence

CRDF options intelligence

Cardiff Oncology Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 3 Aug 2026 Checked 4 Aug 2026 11:30 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CRDF currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 20.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 20.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.4%

RS -60.1

Expected move 20.5%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.72
Max pain 0.50
Underlying 0.86
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 84

Research Brief

CRDF has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.68–1.03; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 1.50. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00.

Priced range0.68–1.03
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration1.50
Max pain reference0.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 0.68 to 1.03. Max pain at 0.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
0.680.86 ± 0.181.03
Confirmation level

A close beyond 1.03 or below 0.68 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation2 × 22%
+0.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 1.50. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
0.50-41.5%
206
3
1.0016.9%
568
73
1.5075.4%
258
2
2.00133.8%
796
17
2.50192.3%
6835
0
5.00484.5%
6058
0
7.50776.8%
287
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 95% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$8,462Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak1.50+$3,680
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.50-41.5%
+$1
1.0016.9%
+$1,644
1.5075.4%
+$3,680
2.00133.8%
+$664
2.50192.3%
+$1,572
5.00484.5%
+$846
7.50776.8%
+$54
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.93× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.72 21 Aug 18d
1.31 18 Sep 46d
1.02 20 Nov 109d
1.06 15 Jan 165d
0.76 19 Feb 200d
0.89 21 Jan 536d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

1
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
3 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
84 / 84
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

94/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3,140 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+3.4%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 167 contracts traded, $1,745 estimated gross traded notional, and 56% of visible notional.
$1,745
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 36 contracts traded, $1,137 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$1,137
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $258 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$258

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 4 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close0.86
1W+3.4%
RS-60.1
Fair value-66.3%
Options pressure100
Speculation2
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 20.5% history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
IV 1.72 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:44 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 39.3%
30 Jul 11:22 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 40.5%
31 Jul 10:54 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 37.8%
2 Aug 11:46 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 45.2%
4 Aug 10:30 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 206
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike1.00
Calls · V 71 · OI 568
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike1.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 258
Puts · V 0 · OI 73
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 796
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike2.50
Calls · V 26 · OI 6835
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6058
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 70 · OI 287
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.72
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.31
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.02
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV1.06
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.76
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV1.97
Skew1.59
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV1.23
Skew0.37
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.81
Skew0.24
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.11
Put IV0.66
Skew0.55
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.09
Put IV0.60
Skew0.51

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCRDF260821C00001000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.00
Volume71
OI568
IV0.38
ContractCRDF260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume70
OI287
IV4.19
ContractCRDF260821C00002500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume26
OI6835
IV2.40
ContractCRDF280121C00001500
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike1.50
Volume20
OI9105
IV0.95
ContractCRDF260918C00001000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1.00
Volume8
OI131
IV2.49
ContractCRDF280121C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike5.00
Volume6
OI478
IV2.03
ContractCRDF270115C00002000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.00
Volume4
OI1261
IV1.20
ContractCRDF261120C00001500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike1.50
Volume2
OI106
IV0.56