Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
DBP options intelligence
INVESCO DB MULTI-SECTOR COMM TR PRECIOUS METALS FD ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
67
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 13:02 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
DBP currently carries bearish options pressure with a 67/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.42.
Expected move
5.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.42
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
48
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+0.0%
RS -14.8
Expected move
5.7%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.42
Reference IV
0.20
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
92.93
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
250
Research Brief
DBP has a bearish chain read with 67/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 87.65–98.20; The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00.
Priced range87.65–98.20
Call concentration90.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference85.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 87.65 to 98.20. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
87.6592.93 ± 5.2798.20
Confirmation level
A close beyond 98.20 or below 87.65 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 67/100
Pressure is 94/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure94 × 42%
+39.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation50 × 22%
+10.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
75.00-19.3%
0
0
80.00-13.9%
0
1
85.00-8.5%
0
0
90.00-3.1%
7
0
92.00-1.0%
0
0
93.000.1%
0
0
94.001.2%
0
0
95.002.2%
0
0
96.003.3%
0
0
97.004.4%
0
0
98.005.5%
0
0
99.006.5%
0
0
100.007.6%
1
0
101.008.7%
0
0
102.009.8%
0
0
103.0010.8%
0
0
104.0011.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2,060Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak90.00+$3,127
Negative peak100.00-$1,170
Nearest balance96.03Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
70.00-24.7%
+$29
85.00-8.5%
-$168
90.00-3.1%
+$3,127
95.002.2%
+$304
100.007.6%
-$1,170
105.0013.0%
+$186
106.0014.1%
-$286
119.0028.1%
+$14
120.0029.1%
+$11
135.0045.3%
+$6
160.0072.2%
+$3
165.0077.6%
+$4
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.20
21 Aug
17d
0.28
18 Sep
45d
0.30
16 Oct
73d
0.30
15 Jan
164d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
75
80
85
90
92
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
106
107
108
109
110
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 250 / 250
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $225 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-94
1W price+0.0%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.42
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
48/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $225 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$225
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The signal is live, but the strongest framework tags are still developing.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close92.93
1W+0.0%
RS-14.8
Fair value+30.1%
Options pressure-94
Speculation50
Volatility37
Trend fit48
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:08
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 5.1%
30 Jul 11:45
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 11:22
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 6.1%
3 Aug 10:17
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 4.9%
4 Aug 11:33
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.7%
5 Aug 12:02
Bearish
Pressure -94
Move 5.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 1
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike92.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike93.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike94.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts78
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.34
Skew0.29
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.41
Skew0.14
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.40
Skew0.12
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.33
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractDBP260821P00085000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume10
OI1
IV0.34
ContractDBP260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.25
ContractDBP261016P00100000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike100.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.30
ContractDBP270115P00106000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike106.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.37
ContractDBP270115C00105000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike105.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.27
ContractDBP260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.12
ContractDBP270115C00165000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.28
ContractDBP261016C00120000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.19
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.