Ticker Options Intelligence

NWG options intelligence

Natwest Group PLC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 4 Aug 2026 Checked 5 Aug 2026 11:02 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

NWG currently carries bearish options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 7.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 3.95

Put-side skew

Trend fit 53

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.4%

RS 11.5

Expected move 7.3%
Put-call volume 3.95
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.44
Max pain 17.50
Underlying 18.94
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 90

Research Brief

NWG has a bearish chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 17.56–20.32; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.

Priced range17.56–20.32
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference17.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 17.56 to 20.32. Max pain at 17.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
17.5618.94 ± 1.3820.32
Confirmation level

A close beyond 20.32 or below 17.56 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 51/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure51 × 42%
+21.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement53 × 26%
+13.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility60 × 10%
+6.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-86.8%
1
0
5.00-73.6%
1
0
7.50-60.4%
4
20
10.00-47.2%
13
74
12.50-34.0%
45
286
15.00-20.8%
76
227
17.50-7.6%
390
54
20.005.6%
285
0
22.5018.8%
15
0
25.0032.0%
11
0
30.0058.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 98% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$98,669Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.50+$65,797
Negative peak15.00-$4,642
Nearest balance15.16Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-86.8%
+$3
5.00-73.6%
+$6
7.50-60.4%
+$24
10.00-47.2%
+$28
12.50-34.0%
-$543
15.00-20.8%
-$4,642
17.50-7.6%
+$65,797
20.005.6%
+$37,262
22.5018.8%
+$688
25.0032.0%
+$60
30.0058.4%
-$13
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.39× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.44 21 Aug 17d
0.40 18 Sep 45d
0.30 20 Nov 108d
0.32 19 Feb 199d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

18
20
23
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
4 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
90 / 90
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

82/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10,565 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-51
1W price+5.4%
Call premium15%
Put premium85%
Notional split C 15% / P 85% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 53/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 50 contracts traded, $6,375 estimated gross traded notional, and 60% of visible notional.
$6,375
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 27 contracts traded, $2,570 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$2,570
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $680 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$680
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $390 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$390
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $278 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$278

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 5 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close18.94
1W+5.4%
RS11.5
Fair value+79.1%
Options pressure-51
Speculation41
Volatility60
Trend fit53

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.3% history building
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions -
IV 0.44 history building
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions -
Put-call 3.95 history building
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:06 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 7.8%
30 Jul 10:04 Bullish
Pressure 82
Move 7.4%
31 Jul 10:02 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 9.3%
2 Aug 05:42 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 7.8%
4 Aug 10:00 Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 6.5%
5 Aug 10:02 Bearish
Pressure -51
Move 7.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 45
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 76
Puts · V 1 · OI 286
Strike17.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 390
Puts · V 1 · OI 227
Strike20.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 285
Puts · V 50 · OI 54

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.44
Put-call7.43
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.30
Put-call5.00
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.32
Put-call4.25

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.38
Skew0.15
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.36
Skew0.13
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.37
Skew0.07
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.37
Skew0.07

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNWG260821P00020000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume50
OI54
IV0.46
ContractNWG270219P00017500
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike17.50
Volume17
OI3
IV0.37
ContractNWG261120P00017500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike17.50
Volume10
OI19
IV0.37
ContractNWG260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume7
OI54
IV0.23
ContractNWG260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume4
OI390
IV0.31
ContractNWG260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume3
OI285
IV0.23
ContractNWG261120C00020000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike20.00
Volume2
OI105
IV0.27
ContractNWG270219C00025000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike25.00
Volume2
OI-
IV0.30