Ticker Options Intelligence

POST options intelligence

Post Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 28 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 06:57 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

POST currently carries bullish options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 7.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.53

Call-side skew

Trend fit 51

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.5%

RS -17.3

Expected move 7.8%
Put-call volume 0.53
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.40
Max pain 90.00
Underlying 91.41
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 212

Research Brief

POST has a bullish chain read with 28/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 84.26–98.56; The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.

Priced range84.26–98.56
Call concentration90.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference90.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 84.26 to 98.56. Max pain at 90.00 sits inside that range, 1.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
84.2691.41 ± 7.1598.56
Confirmation level

A close beyond 98.56 or below 84.26 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 28/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 19/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure19 × 42%
+8.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation4 × 22%
+0.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility59 × 10%
+5.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score27.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
20
50.00-45.3%
0
0
55.00-39.8%
0
0
60.00-34.4%
0
0
65.00-28.9%
2
1
70.00-23.4%
0
17
75.00-18.0%
0
13
80.00-12.5%
0
13
85.00-7.0%
0
11
90.00-1.5%
17
0
95.003.9%
13
0
100.009.4%
0
0
105.0014.9%
11
0
110.0020.3%
0
0
115.0025.8%
0
0
120.0031.3%
0
0
125.0036.7%
0
0
130.0042.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.15× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.40 21 Aug 21d
0.37 18 Sep 49d
0.34 18 Dec 140d
0.34 19 Mar 231d
0.35 17 Dec 504d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
212 / 212
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

70/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $80800 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+19
1W price+0.5%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split C 78% / P 22% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 51/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $45945 estimated gross traded notional, and 57% of visible notional.
$45945
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $17150 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$17150
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 9 contracts traded, $10125 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$10125
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $7580 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$7580

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close91.41
1W+0.5%
RS-17.3
Fair value-11.5%
Options pressure19
Speculation4
Volatility59
Trend fit51

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.53 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:42 Bearish
Pressure -79
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 10:39 Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 05:36 Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 8.9%
2 Aug 05:57 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 7.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.10
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts40
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Contracts40
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.48
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.39
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.37
Skew0.03
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.36
Skew0.05
17 Dec 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.36
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPOST261218C00105000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike105.00
Volume10
OI104
IV0.32
ContractPOST261218C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike110.00
Volume10
OI27
IV0.34
ContractPOST271217C00100000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike100.00
Volume9
OI-
IV0.34
ContractPOST271217C00045000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike45.00
Volume9
OI-
IV0.56
ContractPOST271217P00080000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike80.00
Volume9
OI-
IV0.36
ContractPOST271217P00090000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike90.00
Volume9
OI-
IV0.34
ContractPOST261218P00085000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2
OI288
IV0.34
ContractPOST260918P00085000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI807
IV0.39