Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PM options intelligence
Philip Morris International Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 06:20 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
3.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.58
Call-side skew
Trend fit
67
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-1.1%
RS 4.9
Expected move
3.2%
Put-call volume
0.58
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.30
Max pain
195.00
Underlying
190.82
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1052
Research Brief
PM has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 184.67–196.97; The largest call open-interest concentration is 205.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 195.00.
Priced range184.67–196.97
Call concentration205.00
Put concentration195.00
Max pain reference195.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 184.67 to 196.97. Max pain at 195.00 sits inside that range, 2.2% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
184.67190.82 ± 6.15196.97
Confirmation level
A close beyond 196.97 or below 184.67 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 26/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure26 × 42%
+10.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement67 × 26%
+17.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 205.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 195.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
50
160.00-16.2%
0
40
165.00-13.5%
6
97
175.00-8.3%
2
20
177.50-7.0%
0
29
180.00-5.7%
10
26
182.50-4.4%
3
66
185.00-3.0%
15
69
187.50-1.7%
23
102
190.00-0.4%
51
29
192.500.9%
91
187
195.002.2%
151
20
197.503.5%
61
28
200.004.8%
352
20
202.506.1%
30
22
205.007.4%
382
0
210.0010.1%
150
0
215.0012.7%
110
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.30
7 Aug
7d
0.29
14 Aug
14d
0.30
21 Aug
21d
0.30
28 Aug
28d
0.29
4 Sep
35d
0.29
11 Sep
42d
0.29
18 Sep
49d
0.30
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
155
160
168
170
173
175
180
183
185
190
193
195
200
203
205
210
213
215
218
223
225
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1052 / 1052
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+26
1W price-1.1%
Call premium59%
Put premium41%
Notional split
C 59% / P 41%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
67/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 916 contracts traded, $608492 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$608492
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 694 contracts traded, $285694 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$285694
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 629 contracts traded, $253640 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$253640
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 88 contracts traded, $250955 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$250955
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 187 contracts traded, $192472 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$192472
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close190.82
1W-1.1%
RS4.9
Fair value+45.5%
Options pressure26
Speculation41
Volatility34
Trend fit67
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 15:19
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 5.0%
29 Jul 15:40
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 5.0%
29 Jul 16:04
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 4.9%
29 Jul 16:21
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 4.8%
29 Jul 16:50
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 4.5%
29 Jul 17:13
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 4.5%
29 Jul 17:31
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 4.6%
29 Jul 18:00
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 4.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.30
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.29
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.21
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.39
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.63
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.30
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.32
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.31
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.35
Skew0.06
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.30
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPM260918C00200000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike200.00
Volume520
OI1712
IV0.29
ContractPM260821C00195000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike195.00
Volume507
OI1451
IV0.30
ContractPM261120P00180000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike180.00
Volume463
OI383
IV0.33
ContractPM260807C00195000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike195.00
Volume392
OI151
IV0.29
ContractPM260807C00190000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike190.00
Volume144
OI51
IV0.28
ContractPM270115P00165000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike165.00
Volume124
OI790
IV0.34
ContractPM261120P00170000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike170.00
Volume110
OI419
IV0.34
ContractPM260821C00220000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume95
OI1013
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.