Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PDP options intelligence
INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT MOMENTUM ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
62
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 14:04 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
PDP currently carries bearish options pressure with a 62/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.12.
Expected move
5.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
1.12
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
16
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.8%
RS -2.3
Expected move
5.1%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
1.12
Reference IV
0.23
Max pain
135.00
Underlying
133.57
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
270
Research Brief
PDP has a bearish chain read with 62/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 126.77–140.37; The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 125.00.
Priced range126.77–140.37
Call concentration135.00
Put concentration150.00
Max pain reference135.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 126.77 to 140.37. Max pain at 135.00 sits inside that range, 1.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
126.77133.57 ± 6.80140.37
Confirmation level
A close beyond 140.37 or below 126.77 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 62/100
Pressure is 95/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure95 × 42%
+39.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation66 × 22%
+14.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement16 × 26%
+4.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility36 × 10%
+3.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 125.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
110.00-17.6%
0
0
115.00-13.9%
0
0
120.00-10.2%
0
0
125.00-6.4%
0
0
130.00-2.7%
0
0
135.001.1%
14
0
140.004.8%
13
0
141.005.6%
0
0
142.006.3%
1
0
143.007.1%
0
0
144.007.8%
0
0
145.008.6%
1
0
146.009.3%
0
0
147.0010.1%
0
0
149.0011.6%
1
1
150.0012.3%
1
1
151.0013.0%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$17,174Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak135.00+$11,514
Negative peak126.00-$622
Nearest balance133.06Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
115.00-13.9%
-$184
121.00-9.4%
-$249
122.00-8.7%
-$258
125.00-6.4%
+$282
126.00-5.7%
-$622
129.00-3.4%
+$1,027
130.00-2.7%
+$76
132.00-1.2%
+$463
133.00-0.4%
-$373
135.001.1%
+$11,514
137.002.6%
-$389
138.003.3%
+$800
139.004.1%
-$273
140.004.8%
+$4,380
142.006.3%
+$404
143.007.1%
-$287
145.008.6%
+$386
147.0010.1%
+$825
149.0011.6%
+$45
150.0012.3%
-$148
151.0013.0%
-$359
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.23
21 Aug
21d
0.29
18 Sep
49d
0.30
16 Oct
77d
0.29
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
110
115
125
130
135
140
142
143
144
146
147
148
150
151
152
154
155
156
157
159
160
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 270 / 270
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $118,630 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-95
1W price-2.8%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.12
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
16/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 92 contracts traded, $88,775 estimated gross traded notional, and 75% of visible notional.
$88,775
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 40 contracts traded, $29,200 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$29,200
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $395 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$395
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $260 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$260
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close133.57
1W-2.8%
RS-2.3
Fair value+25.4%
Options pressure-95
Speculation66
Volatility36
Trend fit16
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:54
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 6.5%
30 Jul 12:46
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 12:14
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.3%
3 Aug 13:04
Bearish
Pressure -95
Move 5.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike141.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts80
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.35
Skew0.07
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.34
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.36
Skew0.06
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.35
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPDP261016P00140000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike140.00
Volume74
OI-
IV0.28
ContractPDP261016P00133000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike133.00
Volume10
OI1
IV0.31
ContractPDP261016P00135000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike135.00
Volume10
OI1
IV0.30
ContractPDP261016P00134000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike134.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.30
ContractPDP261016P00136000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike136.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.30
ContractPDP261016P00137000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike137.00
Volume9
OI1
IV0.30
ContractPDP261016P00138000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike138.00
Volume9
OI-
IV0.29
ContractPDP261016P00115000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike115.00
Volume1
OI1
IV0.41
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.