Ticker Options Intelligence

MPLT options intelligence

MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 3 Aug 2026 Checked 3 Aug 2026 19:00 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

MPLT currently carries mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.41.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 15.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.41

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.22

Balanced tape

Trend fit 70

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -64.4%

Sharemaestro weekly context

Expected move 15.9%
Put-call volume 1.22
Volume / OI 0.41
Reference IV 1.31
Max pain 22.50
Underlying 13.02
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 81

Research Brief

MPLT has a mixed chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.94–15.10; The largest call open-interest concentration is 45.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range10.94–15.10
Call concentration45.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference22.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 10.94 to 15.10. Max pain at 22.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
10.9413.02 ± 2.0815.10
Confirmation level

A close beyond 15.10 or below 10.94 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 4/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure4 × 42%
+1.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation50 × 22%
+10.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score40.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 45.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
60
5.00-61.6%
0
112
7.50-42.4%
0
144
10.00-23.2%
21
200
12.50-4.0%
17
147
15.0015.2%
198
3
17.5034.4%
37
51
20.0053.6%
5
550
22.5072.8%
0
1
25.0092.0%
5
1
30.00130.4%
74
0
35.00168.8%
13
0
40.00207.2%
335
0
45.00245.6%
1034
0
50.00284.0%
22
0
55.00322.4%
19
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 97% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile-$1,919Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak40.00+$6,892
Negative peak12.50-$6,923
Nearest balance15.77Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-61.6%
-$37
7.50-42.4%
-$1,135
10.00-23.2%
-$1,201
12.50-4.0%
-$6,923
15.0015.2%
-$212
17.5034.4%
+$473
20.0053.6%
-$523
22.5072.8%
-$3,406
25.0092.0%
+$86
30.00130.4%
-$2,817
35.00168.8%
+$106
40.00207.2%
+$6,892
45.00245.6%
+$2,378
50.00284.0%
+$3,966
55.00322.4%
+$433
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.35× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.31 21 Aug 18d
1.49 18 Sep 46d
1.48 16 Oct 74d
0.82 20 Nov 109d
0.98 19 Feb 200d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
3 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
81 / 81
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

85/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-4
1W price-64.4%
Call premium4%
Put premium96%
Notional split C 4% / P 96% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.41 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 70/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 9 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 1013 contracts traded, $2.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 78% of visible notional.
$2.2M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 242 contracts traded, $288,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$288,560
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 127 contracts traded, $200,775 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$200,775
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 1076 contracts traded, $70,616 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$70,616
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 34 contracts traded, $36,792 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$36,792

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 4 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close13.02
1W-64.4%
RS-
Fair value-43.2%
Options pressure-4
Speculation50
Volatility96
Trend fit70

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 15.9% history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
IV 1.31 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.22 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.41 history building
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:08 Volatility
Pressure -41
Move 64.7%
30 Jul 10:55 Volatility
Pressure 46
Move 54.5%
31 Jul 10:40 Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 57.7%
31 Jul 17:31 Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 58.7%
2 Aug 08:22 Volatility
Pressure -75
Move 33.2%
3 Aug 18:00 Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 15.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 60
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 8 · OI 112
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 144
Strike12.50
Calls · V 7 · OI 17
Puts · V 200 · OI 200
Strike15.00
Calls · V 204 · OI 198
Puts · V 18 · OI 147
Strike17.50
Calls · V 17 · OI 37
Puts · V 8 · OI 3
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 1 · OI 51
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 102 · OI 550

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts25
Avg IV1.31
Put-call1.80
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts17
Avg IV1.49
Put-call1.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV1.48
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.82
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts17
Avg IV0.98
Put-call12.80

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.18
Put IV0.54
Skew-0.65
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.94
Put IV1.95
Skew1.01
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.31
Put IV1.64
Skew0.33
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.32
Put IV0.88
Skew-0.43
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.15
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.39

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMPLT270219P00007500
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI200
IV1.21
ContractMPLT260821P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI144
IV0.95
ContractMPLT260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI136
IV0.57
ContractMPLT260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI60
IV1.94
ContractMPLT261120P00012500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI52
IV0.88
ContractMPLT261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI21
IV1.31
ContractMPLT260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI21
IV1.44
ContractMPLT261016P00007500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI20
IV1.64