Ticker Options Intelligence

TX options intelligence

Ternium SA ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 18:59 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 8.1%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +4.1%

RS 16.2

Expected move 8.1%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.35
Max pain 40.00
Underlying 49.24
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 118

Research Brief

TX has a bullish chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 45.26–53.22; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.

Priced range45.26–53.22
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference40.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 45.26 to 53.22. Max pain at 40.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
45.2649.24 ± 3.9853.22
Confirmation level

A close beyond 53.22 or below 45.26 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation2 × 22%
+0.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility57 × 10%
+5.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score48.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
20.00-59.4%
0
1
22.50-54.3%
0
101
25.00-49.2%
0
1
30.00-39.1%
0
577
35.00-28.9%
0
214
40.00-18.8%
46
2
45.00-8.6%
62
10
50.001.5%
420
0
55.0011.7%
268
0
60.0021.9%
6
0
65.0032.0%
0
1
70.0042.2%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.20× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.35 21 Aug 21d
0.32 18 Sep 49d
0.35 20 Nov 112d
0.31 18 Dec 140d
0.29 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

40
45
50
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
118 / 118
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

81/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2005 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+4.1%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $920 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$920
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $450 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$450
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $430 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$430
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $205 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$205

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close49.24
1W+4.1%
RS16.2
Fair value+47.6%
Options pressure100
Speculation2
Volatility57
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.1% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.35 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:28 Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 7.8%
30 Jul 10:24 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 10:20 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.1%
1 Aug 17:59 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 101
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 577
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 46
Puts · V 0 · OI 214
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 62
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 420
Puts · V 0 · OI 10

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.62
Skew0.23
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.41
Skew0.28
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.44
Skew0.11
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.37
Skew0.06
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.38
Skew0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTX260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume3
OI420
IV0.39
ContractTX260821C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume1
OI46
IV0.01
ContractTX260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume1
OI9
IV0.32
ContractTX270219C00050000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike50.00
Volume1
OI5
IV0.29
ContractTX261120C00055000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI711
IV0.34
ContractTX260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI577
IV0.56
ContractTX260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI268
IV0.20
ContractTX260821P00040000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI214
IV0.37