Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TMV options intelligence
DIREXION DAILY 20+ YEAR TREASURY BEAR 3X ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:32 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
TMV currently carries bullish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.09.
Expected move
6.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.09
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.10
Call-side skew
Trend fit
5
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.8%
RS 8.1
Expected move
6.9%
Put-call volume
0.10
Volume / OI
0.09
Reference IV
0.35
Max pain
38.00
Underlying
42.96
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
292
Research Brief
TMV has a bullish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 39.99–45.93; The largest call open-interest concentration is 37.00; the largest put concentration is 38.00. The most active strike by current volume is 43.00.
Priced range39.99–45.93
Call concentration37.00
Put concentration38.00
Max pain reference38.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 39.99 to 45.93. Max pain at 38.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
39.9942.96 ± 2.9745.93
Confirmation level
A close beyond 45.93 or below 39.99 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 89/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure89 × 42%
+37.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement5 × 26%
+1.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility52 × 10%
+5.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 37.00; the largest put concentration is 38.00. The most active strike by current volume is 43.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
26
30.00-30.2%
91
79
32.00-25.5%
16
68
35.00-18.5%
200
243
36.00-16.2%
128
197
37.00-13.9%
772
403
38.00-11.5%
297
349
39.00-9.2%
509
392
40.00-6.9%
282
125
41.00-4.6%
367
52
42.00-2.2%
331
187
43.000.1%
84
53
44.002.4%
72
66
45.004.7%
501
6
46.007.1%
102
1
47.009.4%
98
66
50.0016.4%
106
0
55.0028.0%
195
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$469,912Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak45.00+$119,737
Negative peak50.00-$23,572
Nearest balance40.05Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
31.00-27.8%
-$25
32.00-25.5%
+$2,764
33.00-23.2%
-$966
34.00-20.9%
+$10,796
35.00-18.5%
+$8,043
36.00-16.2%
+$15,307
37.00-13.9%
+$58,443
38.00-11.5%
+$57,737
39.00-9.2%
+$31,252
40.00-6.9%
-$3,630
41.00-4.6%
+$70,460
42.00-2.2%
+$63,127
43.000.1%
+$898
44.002.4%
+$15,378
45.004.7%
+$119,737
46.007.1%
+$16,024
47.009.4%
+$18,371
48.0011.7%
+$295
49.0014.1%
+$9
50.0016.4%
-$23,572
55.0028.0%
+$15,773
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.35
21 Aug
21d
0.36
18 Sep
49d
0.36
20 Nov
112d
0.35
15 Jan
168d
0.34
19 Feb
203d
0.34
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
50
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 292 / 292
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $656,959 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+89
1W price+3.8%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.09
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
5/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 433 contracts traded, $356,460 estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$356,460
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 266 contracts traded, $86,412 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$86,412
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 466 contracts traded, $67,978 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$67,978
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 150 contracts traded, $51,990 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$51,990
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 256 contracts traded, $27,735 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$27,735
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close42.96
1W+3.8%
RS8.1
Fair value+22.1%
Options pressure89
Speculation42
Volatility52
Trend fit5
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:17
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 5.9%
30 Jul 13:06
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 7.0%
31 Jul 12:42
Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 6.6%
3 Aug 11:32
Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 6.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 60
Strike27.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike28.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike29.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 91
Puts · V 10 · OI 26
Strike31.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 73
Strike32.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 16
Puts · V 20 · OI 79
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 54
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.18
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.08
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.03
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.13
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.07
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.35
Skew-0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.01
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.36
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTMV260821C00043000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike43.00
Volume375
OI84
IV0.37
ContractTMV280121C00038000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike38.00
Volume175
OI335
IV0.24
ContractTMV280121C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike40.00
Volume175
OI75
IV0.25
ContractTMV260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume147
OI501
IV0.39
ContractTMV260918C00048000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike48.00
Volume134
OI14
IV0.41
ContractTMV280121C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike50.00
Volume105
OI312
IV0.30
ContractTMV280121C00060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike60.00
Volume105
OI51
IV0.33
ContractTMV260821P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume90
OI66
IV0.38
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.