Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
NFG options intelligence
National Fuel Gas Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 15:16 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
NFG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.35.
Expected move
6.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.35
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.04
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.2%
RS -9.9
Expected move
6.1%
Put-call volume
0.04
Volume / OI
0.35
Reference IV
0.26
Max pain
80.00
Underlying
82.31
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
136
Research Brief
NFG has a bullish chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 77.26–87.36; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00.
Priced range77.26–87.36
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference80.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 77.26 to 87.36. Max pain at 80.00 sits inside that range, 2.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
77.2682.31 ± 5.0587.36
Confirmation level
A close beyond 87.36 or below 77.26 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 99/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure99 × 42%
+41.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation48 × 22%
+10.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility43 × 10%
+4.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
40.00-51.4%
0
0
45.00-45.3%
0
0
50.00-39.3%
0
0
55.00-33.2%
0
0
60.00-27.1%
0
0
65.00-21.0%
0
22
70.00-15.0%
0
55
75.00-8.9%
300
2037
80.00-2.8%
152
7
85.003.3%
76
0
90.009.3%
75
0
95.0015.4%
0
0
100.0021.5%
0
0
105.0027.6%
1
0
110.0033.6%
3
0
115.0039.7%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.26
21 Aug
21d
0.25
18 Sep
49d
0.28
16 Oct
77d
0.28
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
70
75
80
85
90
95
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 136 / 136
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $828198 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+99
1W price-0.2%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.35
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1073 contracts traded, $568690 estimated gross traded notional, and 69% of visible notional.
$568690
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2008 contracts traded, $240405 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$240405
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 129 contracts traded, $16770 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$16770
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1080 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1080
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $915 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$915
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close82.31
1W-0.2%
RS-9.9
Fair value+22.4%
Options pressure99
Speculation48
Volatility43
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:32
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 10:30
Bearish
Pressure -88
Move 7.1%
31 Jul 02:40
Bullish
Pressure 76
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 13:58
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 14:48
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 15:07
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 16:10
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 6.1%
1 Aug 14:16
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 6.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 300
Puts · V 0 · OI 55
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.30
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.31
Skew0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.29
Skew0.06
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.31
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNFG260821C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2002
OI76
IV0.28
ContractNFG261016C00080000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike80.00
Volume1073
OI12
IV0.25
ContractNFG260821P00080000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume129
OI2037
IV0.30
ContractNFG260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume6
OI75
IV0.29
ContractNFG261016C00085000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike85.00
Volume3
OI4397
IV0.26
ContractNFG261016P00080000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike80.00
Volume1
OI48
IV0.32
ContractNFG270115C00075000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike75.00
Volume1
OI20
IV0.26
ContractNFG260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI890
IV0.24
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.