Ticker Options Intelligence

FSM options intelligence

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 43 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 12:53 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

FSM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 14.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.17

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.4%

RS -17.2

Expected move 14.3%
Put-call volume 0.17
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.78
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 8.55
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 148

Research Brief

FSM has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.33–9.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range7.33–9.77
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 7.33 to 9.77. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
7.338.55 ± 1.229.77
Confirmation level

A close beyond 9.77 or below 7.33 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 43/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 80/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure80 × 42%
+33.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility95 × 10%
+9.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score43.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
17
2.50-70.8%
4
84
5.00-41.5%
286
992
7.50-12.3%
938
1407
10.0017.0%
5507
234
12.5046.2%
2679
0
15.0075.4%
1256
6
17.50104.7%
5255
0
20.00133.9%
2812
0
22.50163.2%
65
0
25.00192.4%
16
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.28× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.78 21 Aug 21d
0.60 18 Sep 49d
0.61 20 Nov 112d
0.67 18 Dec 140d
0.56 15 Jan 168d
0.57 19 Mar 231d
0.61 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

8
10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
148 / 148
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

89/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $31844 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+80
1W price-1.4%
Call premium70%
Put premium30%
Notional split C 70% / P 30% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 72 contracts traded, $14465 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$14465
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 22 contracts traded, $4455 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$4455
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $3875 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$3875
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 16 contracts traded, $2840 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2840
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 41 contracts traded, $2498 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2498

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close8.43
1W-1.4%
RS-17.2
Fair value+36.5%
Options pressure80
Speculation1
Volatility95
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.78 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.17 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:54 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.2%
30 Jul 10:44 Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 14.9%
31 Jul 12:44 Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 18.1%
1 Aug 11:53 Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 14.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike5.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 286
Puts · V 0 · OI 84
Strike7.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 938
Puts · V 0 · OI 992
Strike10.00
Calls · V 98 · OI 5507
Puts · V 0 · OI 1407
Strike12.50
Calls · V 62 · OI 2679
Puts · V 1 · OI 234
Strike15.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1256
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 5255
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2812
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.01
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.60
Put-call3.60
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.61
Put-call0.76
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.67
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.64
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.63
Skew0.07
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.54
Skew-0.07
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.67
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.59
Skew-0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractFSM260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume98
OI5507
IV0.60
ContractFSM270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume70
OI2780
IV0.64
ContractFSM260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume62
OI2679
IV0.76
ContractFSM261120C00010000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume24
OI1095
IV0.55
ContractFSM261120P00010000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume22
OI219
IV0.57
ContractFSM260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume16
OI788
IV0.59
ContractFSM260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI938
IV0.59
ContractFSM280121P00007500
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI770
IV0.60