Ticker Options Intelligence

MERC options intelligence

Mercer International Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 63 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 00:05 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

MERC currently carries volatility options pressure with a 63/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 23.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 23.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 2.22

Put-side skew

Trend fit 97

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -5.8%

RS -68.6

Expected move 23.8%
Put-call volume 2.22
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 5.33
Max pain 1.00
Underlying 0.67
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 41

Research Brief

MERC has a volatility chain read with 63/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.51–0.83; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.00; the largest put concentration is 1.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00.

Priced range0.51–0.83
Call concentration2.00
Put concentration1.00
Max pain reference1.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 0.51 to 0.83. Max pain at 1.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
0.510.67 ± 0.160.83
Confirmation level

A close beyond 0.83 or below 0.51 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 63/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 50/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure50 × 42%
+20.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation33 × 22%
+7.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement97 × 26%
+25.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score63.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.00; the largest put concentration is 1.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
13
1.0049.0%
131
4
2.00198.1%
358
0
3.00347.1%
262
0
4.00496.1%
2
1
5.00645.2%
0
0
6.00794.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.77× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

5.33 21 Aug 21d
3.36 18 Sep 49d
2.81 20 Nov 112d
2.18 18 Dec 140d
1.92 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.

Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A95/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
41 / 41
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

87/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $30533 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-50
1W price-5.8%
Call premium8%
Put premium92%
Notional split C 8% / P 92% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 97/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 517 contracts traded, $26255 estimated gross traded notional, and 86% of visible notional.
$26255
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 9 contracts traded, $1745 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$1745
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $1150 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1150
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 152 contracts traded, $1102 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1102
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $210 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$210

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close0.63
1W-5.8%
RS-68.6
Fair value-87.8%
Options pressure-50
Speculation33
Volatility96
Trend fit97

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 23.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 5.33 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 2.22 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:47 Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 47.9%
30 Jul 11:25 Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 73.5%
30 Jul 15:29 Volatility
Pressure -55
Move 23.8%
30 Jul 17:45 Volatility
Pressure -55
Move 23.8%
31 Jul 23:05 Volatility
Pressure -50
Move 23.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 131
Puts · V 5 · OI 13
Strike2.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 358
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike3.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 262
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV5.33
Put-call0.46
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV3.36
Put-call0.12
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV2.81
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV2.18
Put-call3.61
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV1.92
Put-call3.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.75
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV5.28
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV3.52
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.41
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV2.98
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMERC261120C00001000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike1.00
Volume-
OI27
IV3.52
ContractMERC260918P00003000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI11
IV3.44
ContractMERC261120P00001000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike1.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.56
ContractMERC261120P00002000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI3
IV3.81
ContractMERC261120P00004000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI2
IV4.38
ContractMERC260918C00003000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI1
IV6.78
ContractMERC260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV6.84
ContractMERC260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV9.44