Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AGM options intelligence
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:18 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
AGM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 28.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.38.
Expected move
28.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.38
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.16
Call-side skew
Trend fit
16
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.0%
RS 12.9
Expected move
28.0%
Put-call volume
0.16
Volume / OI
0.38
Reference IV
0.37
Max pain
145.00
Underlying
209.51
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
129
Research Brief
AGM has a bullish chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 150.76–268.26; The largest call open-interest concentration is 185.00; the largest put concentration is 180.00. The most active strike by current volume is 185.00.
Priced range150.76–268.26
Call concentration185.00
Put concentration180.00
Max pain reference145.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 150.76 to 268.26. Max pain at 145.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
150.76209.51 ± 58.75268.26
Confirmation level
A close beyond 268.26 or below 150.76 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 80/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure80 × 42%
+33.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation49 × 22%
+10.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement16 × 26%
+4.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility66 × 10%
+6.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 185.00; the largest put concentration is 180.00. The most active strike by current volume is 185.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
7
90.00-57.0%
1
5
100.00-52.3%
0
11
140.00-33.2%
0
1
145.00-30.8%
38
4
150.00-28.4%
0
1
155.00-26.0%
1
10
160.00-23.6%
10
1
165.00-21.2%
8
1
170.00-18.9%
0
17
180.00-14.1%
2
0
185.00-11.7%
202
1
190.00-9.3%
101
2
200.00-4.5%
7
0
210.000.2%
132
0
220.005.0%
4
0
230.009.8%
47
0
240.0014.6%
15
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.37
21 Aug
21d
0.40
18 Sep
49d
0.37
20 Nov
112d
0.29
15 Jan
168d
0.37
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 129 / 129
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+80
1W price+2.0%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.38
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
16/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 249 contracts traded, $512575 estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$512575
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 124 contracts traded, $353036 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$353036
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 120 contracts traded, $96455 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$96455
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 55 contracts traded, $63525 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$63525
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $13475 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$13475
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close209.51
1W+2.0%
RS12.9
Fair value+21.6%
Options pressure80
Speculation49
Volatility66
Trend fit16
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:01
Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 7.2%
30 Jul 10:50
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 05:40
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 14:18
Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 28.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 7
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.13
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts2
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.15
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts25
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.22
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.37
Put-call1.29
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.42
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.02
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.61
Skew0.27
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.37
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAGM270115P00210000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI33
IV0.31
ContractAGM260918C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.35
ContractAGM270115C00155000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.00
ContractAGM270115C00185000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.00
ContractAGM260918C00200000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike200.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.45
ContractAGM270219C00195000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike195.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.39
ContractAGM261120P00180000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike180.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.52
ContractAGM261120P00210000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.33
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.