Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
XLE options intelligence
SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST STATE STREET ENERGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR E options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:02 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
XLE currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.53
Call-side skew
Trend fit
70
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.1%
RS 8.5
Expected move
2.6%
Put-call volume
0.53
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.24
Max pain
59.00
Underlying
59.55
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1668
Research Brief
XLE has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 57.99–61.11; The largest call open-interest concentration is 59.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 56.00.
Priced range57.99–61.11
Call concentration59.00
Put concentration60.00
Max pain reference59.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 57.99 to 61.11. Max pain at 59.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
57.9959.55 ± 1.5661.11
Confirmation level
A close beyond 61.11 or below 57.99 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 24/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure24 × 42%
+10.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility27 × 10%
+2.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 59.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 56.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
955
51.00-14.4%
2
376
54.00-9.3%
366
3446
55.00-7.6%
5758
468
55.50-6.8%
223
495
56.00-6.0%
233
264
56.50-5.1%
451
812
57.00-4.3%
316
732
57.50-3.4%
284
4483
58.00-2.6%
187
213
58.50-1.8%
447
2903
59.00-0.9%
7196
151
59.50-0.1%
2571
7951
60.000.8%
1642
10
60.501.6%
1540
6
61.002.4%
795
0
61.503.3%
1134
0
62.004.1%
1294
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.24
7 Aug
7d
0.26
14 Aug
14d
0.26
21 Aug
21d
0.25
28 Aug
28d
0.26
4 Sep
35d
0.25
11 Sep
42d
0.26
18 Sep
49d
0.27
30 Sep
61d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
70
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1668 / 1668
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10.0M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+24
1W price-0.1%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split
C 74% / P 26%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
70/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 12692 contracts traded, $1.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$1.6M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 3559 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2504 contracts traded, $920837 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$920837
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1048 contracts traded, $879820 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$879820
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 903 contracts traded, $821395 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$821395
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close59.55
1W-0.1%
RS8.5
Fair value+33.1%
Options pressure24
Speculation40
Volatility27
Trend fit70
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:26
Bearish
Pressure -20
Move 3.4%
30 Jul 13:13
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 2.3%
31 Jul 12:53
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 1.5%
2 Aug 18:02
Bullish
Pressure 24
Move 2.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 2 · OI 21
Strike47.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 6
Strike47.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 21
Strike48.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 14
Strike48.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 31
Strike49.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 37
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.66
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.26
Put-call1.16
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.23
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.25
Put-call2.72
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.37
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.27
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.26
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.26
Skew-
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.25
Skew-
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractXLE260821C00060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume10147
OI78172
IV0.26
ContractXLE260821C00062000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike62.00
Volume4398
OI25730
IV0.26
ContractXLE260821C00063000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike63.00
Volume2591
OI6072
IV0.26
ContractXLE260807P00056000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike56.00
Volume2495
OI495
IV0.29
ContractXLE260807C00060500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike60.50
Volume2254
OI1540
IV0.23
ContractXLE260807C00056000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike56.00
Volume2101
OI233
IV0.39
ContractXLE260918P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1920
OI103314
IV0.28
ContractXLE281215P00055000
SidePut
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike55.00
Volume1620
OI682
IV0.28
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.