Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TMDX options intelligence
TransMedics Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
33
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 15:43 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
TMDX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
17.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.51
Call-side skew
Trend fit
24
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+5.9%
RS -37.2
Expected move
17.3%
Put-call volume
0.51
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.95
Max pain
75.00
Underlying
76.51
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
350
Research Brief
TMDX has a bullish chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 63.31–89.71; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00.
Priced range63.31–89.71
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration65.00
Max pain reference75.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 63.31 to 89.71. Max pain at 75.00 sits inside that range, 2.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
63.3176.51 ± 13.2089.71
Confirmation level
A close beyond 89.71 or below 63.31 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 33/100
Pressure is 37/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure37 × 42%
+15.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement24 × 26%
+6.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
110
40.00-47.7%
0
124
45.00-41.2%
4
601
50.00-34.6%
35
265
55.00-28.1%
0
2271
60.00-21.6%
4
5566
65.00-15.0%
19
2733
70.00-8.5%
69
229
75.00-2.0%
118
69
80.004.6%
3070
13
85.0011.1%
332
13
90.0017.6%
607
4
95.0024.2%
346
15
100.0030.7%
527
0
105.0037.2%
453
0
110.0043.8%
236
0
115.0050.3%
94
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.95
21 Aug
21d
0.78
18 Sep
49d
0.73
16 Oct
77d
0.77
18 Dec
140d
0.74
15 Jan
168d
0.75
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
65
70
75
80
85
90
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 350 / 350
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $401020 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+37
1W price+5.9%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split
C 62% / P 38%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
24/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 509 contracts traded, $157132 estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$157132
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 203 contracts traded, $115710 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$115710
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 105 contracts traded, $32525 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$32525
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 109 contracts traded, $18540 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$18540
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $15975 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$15975
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close76.51
1W+5.9%
RS-37.2
Fair value-24.3%
Options pressure37
Speculation8
Volatility96
Trend fit24
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:58
Volatility
Pressure -25
Move 21.6%
30 Jul 10:48
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 21.5%
31 Jul 12:59
Volatility
Pressure 87
Move 19.7%
31 Jul 15:38
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 20.4%
31 Jul 18:33
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 19.9%
1 Aug 14:43
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 17.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 110
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 124
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 35
Puts · V 26 · OI 601
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 14 · OI 265
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 40 · OI 2271
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 19
Puts · V 7 · OI 5566
Strike70.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 69
Puts · V 18 · OI 2733
Strike75.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 118
Puts · V 203 · OI 229
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.95
Put-call0.60
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.21
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.73
Put-call1.57
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.08
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts70
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.02
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.91
Put IV1.02
Skew0.11
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.81
Skew0.04
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.75
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.76
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.75
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTMDX260821P00075000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume203
OI229
IV0.90
ContractTMDX260821C00080000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume157
OI3070
IV0.91
ContractTMDX260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume145
OI527
IV0.94
ContractTMDX260821C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume112
OI332
IV0.96
ContractTMDX261218C00125000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike125.00
Volume70
OI327
IV0.68
ContractTMDX260821C00115000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike115.00
Volume42
OI94
IV0.97
ContractTMDX260821P00060000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume40
OI2271
IV1.09
ContractTMDX260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume39
OI607
IV0.91
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.