Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PYPL options intelligence
PayPal Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:04 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PYPL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
3.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.22
Call-side skew
Trend fit
3
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.7%
RS -7.6
Expected move
3.5%
Put-call volume
0.22
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.49
Max pain
52.00
Underlying
56.15
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1274
Research Brief
PYPL has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 54.17–58.13; The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 52.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.00.
Priced range54.17–58.13
Call concentration60.00
Put concentration52.00
Max pain reference52.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 54.17 to 58.13. Max pain at 52.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
54.1756.15 ± 1.9858.13
Confirmation level
A close beyond 58.13 or below 54.17 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 71/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure71 × 42%
+30.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement3 × 26%
+0.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility49 × 10%
+4.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 52.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2214
42.00-25.2%
208
1611
45.00-19.9%
1148
5003
50.00-11.0%
3129
2370
51.00-9.2%
1962
6249
52.00-7.4%
2130
2355
53.00-5.6%
257
2999
54.00-3.8%
437
1415
55.00-2.0%
1545
1256
56.00-0.3%
1506
1211
57.001.5%
2401
705
58.003.3%
4317
365
59.005.1%
2981
63
60.006.9%
10328
24
61.008.6%
6061
6
62.0010.4%
2426
12
65.0015.8%
5640
0
70.0024.7%
2266
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.49
31 Jul
1d
0.32
7 Aug
8d
0.34
14 Aug
15d
0.34
21 Aug
22d
0.35
28 Aug
29d
0.38
4 Sep
36d
0.36
11 Sep
43d
0.33
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
45
46
47
47
48
49
49
50
51
52
54
55
56
58
59
60
62
63
64
66
67
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1274 / 1274
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13.0M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+71
1W price-0.7%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split
C 90% / P 10%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
3/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1838 contracts traded, $2.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$2.6M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 7099 contracts traded, $2.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$2.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 25311 contracts traded, $2.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$2.2M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 654 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 1023 contracts traded, $802138 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$802138
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close56.15
1W-0.7%
RS-7.6
Fair value-11.4%
Options pressure71
Speculation41
Volatility49
Trend fit3
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:11
Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 4.8%
30 Jul 10:07
Bullish
Pressure 46
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 71
Move 3.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike30.00
Calls · V 16 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike31.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 19
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike32.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike33.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 117
Puts · V 0 · OI 80
Strike34.00
Calls · V 9 · OI 175
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike35.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 214
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Strike36.00
Calls · V 133 · OI 241
Puts · V 1 · OI 26
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.64
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts120
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.52
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.32
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.48
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.31
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.06
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.03
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.37
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.33
Skew-
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.36
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPYPL260918C00062500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike62.50
Volume11506
OI3803
IV0.30
ContractPYPL260918C00067500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike67.50
Volume10158
OI1252
IV0.32
ContractPYPL261016C00060000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume2257
OI3093
IV0.31
ContractPYPL270115C00070000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike70.00
Volume2087
OI17432
IV0.27
ContractPYPL260807C00060000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume1896
OI2218
IV0.36
ContractPYPL280121C00060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike60.00
Volume1858
OI6628
IV0.26
ContractPYPL260731P00055000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1327
OI1415
IV0.53
ContractPYPL260731P00057000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike57.00
Volume1246
OI1211
IV0.38
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.