Ticker Options Intelligence

UFCS options intelligence

United Fire Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 36 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 02:19 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

UFCS currently carries mixed options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 9.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 93

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +0.5%

RS 25.6

Expected move 9.0%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI -
Reference IV 0.59
Max pain 40.00
Underlying 51.33
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 88

Research Brief

UFCS has a mixed chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 46.70–55.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.

Priced range46.70–55.96
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference40.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 46.70 to 55.96. Max pain at 40.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
46.7051.33 ± 4.6355.96
Confirmation level

A close beyond 55.96 or below 46.70 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 36/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 9/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure9 × 42%
+3.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation0 × 22%
+0.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement93 × 26%
+24.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score35.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
20.00-61.0%
0
0
22.50-56.2%
0
10
25.00-51.3%
0
0
30.00-41.6%
0
0
35.00-31.8%
1
0
40.00-22.1%
6
4
45.00-12.3%
0
1
50.00-2.6%
11
0
55.007.1%
12
0
60.0016.9%
0
0
65.0026.6%
0
0
70.0036.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.64× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.59 21 Aug 21d
0.31 18 Sep 49d
0.31 20 Nov 112d
0.36 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

45
50
55
60
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
88 / 88
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Likely noise

36/100
Primary intent Likely noise

Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $0 of estimated gross traded notional, no dominant cluster, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+9
1W price+0.5%
Call premium0%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 0% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 93/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters No dominant cluster

No high-conviction option cluster is visible in this snapshot.

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close51.33
1W+0.5%
RS25.6
Fair value+85.9%
Options pressure9
Speculation0
Volatility77
Trend fit93

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.59 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:12 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 13.9%
30 Jul 10:59 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 13.5%
30 Jul 15:06 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.6%
30 Jul 17:09 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.8%
31 Jul 04:35 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 13:52 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.4%
1 Aug 01:19 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 9.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.59
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.07
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.66
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.45
Skew0.37
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.40
Skew0.05
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.41
Skew0.09

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractUFCS260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.80
ContractUFCS261120C00055000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.35
ContractUFCS260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.52
ContractUFCS260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.12
ContractUFCS261120C00030000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.71
ContractUFCS260821C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.88
ContractUFCS261120C00060000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.11
ContractUFCS260821P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.24