Ticker Options Intelligence

ETSY options intelligence

Etsy, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 22:15 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

ETSY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.39

Call-side skew

Trend fit 52

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.3%

RS 21.4

Expected move 12.3%
Put-call volume 0.39
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 1.12
Max pain 83.00
Underlying 81.68
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 990

Research Brief

ETSY has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 71.65–91.71; The largest call open-interest concentration is 87.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 91.00.

Priced range71.65–91.71
Call concentration87.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference83.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 71.65 to 91.71. Max pain at 83.00 sits inside that range, 1.6% above spot.

Spot Max pain
71.6581.68 ± 10.0391.71
Confirmation level

A close beyond 91.71 or below 71.65 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 48/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure48 × 42%
+20.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement52 × 26%
+13.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 87.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 91.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
105
75.00-8.2%
12
105
76.00-7.0%
6
15
77.00-5.7%
3
64
80.00-2.1%
17
8
81.00-0.8%
110
47
82.000.4%
22
31
83.001.6%
197
69
84.002.8%
87
206
85.004.1%
274
120
86.005.3%
155
44
87.006.5%
2224
1
88.007.7%
112
0
90.0010.2%
92
0
91.0011.4%
21
6
95.0016.3%
44
0
100.0022.4%
205
0
115.0040.8%
7
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.95× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.12 7 Aug 7d
0.90 14 Aug 14d
0.78 21 Aug 21d
0.70 28 Aug 28d
0.68 4 Sep 35d
0.65 11 Sep 42d
0.64 18 Sep 49d
0.59 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

66
68
69
71
72
74
76
77
79
80
82
84
85
87
88
90
92
93
95
96
98
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
990 / 990
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

94/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+48
1W price+1.3%
Call premium67%
Put premium33%
Notional split C 67% / P 33% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 52/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 1531 contracts traded, $306598 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$306598
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 108 contracts traded, $171475 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$171475
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM puts cluster with 272 contracts traded, $134695 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$134695
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 871 contracts traded, $101214 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$101214
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 196 contracts traded, $100154 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$100154

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close81.68
1W+1.3%
RS21.4
Fair value+34.0%
Options pressure48
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit52

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.12 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.39 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:35 Volatility
Pressure 31
Move 7.6%
30 Jul 10:33 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 10:22 Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 3.7%
1 Aug 03:04 Volatility
Pressure 13
Move 12.2%
1 Aug 03:42 Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 2.0%
1 Aug 09:21 Volatility
Pressure 48
Move 12.2%
1 Aug 21:15 Volatility
Pressure 48
Move 12.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike40.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 1
Puts · V 56 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 17
Puts · V 18 · OI 23
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 47
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 54
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike58.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike59.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 26
Strike61.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 27 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.46
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.90
Put-call0.05
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts102
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.17
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.70
Put-call0.08
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.68
Put-call0.13

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.19
Put IV1.13
Skew-0.06
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.99
Put IV0.81
Skew-0.18
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.68
Skew-0.06
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.72
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractETSY260807C00091000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike91.00
Volume752
OI21
IV1.21
ContractETSY260821C00105000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume401
OI487
IV0.86
ContractETSY260814C00105000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume401
OI411
IV0.99
ContractETSY260807C00095000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume310
OI44
IV1.21
ContractETSY260807C00086000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike86.00
Volume151
OI155
IV1.16
ContractETSY260807P00082000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike82.00
Volume146
OI47
IV1.18
ContractETSY260807P00077000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike77.00
Volume129
OI15
IV1.08
ContractETSY260918P00080000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume116
OI120
IV0.65