Ticker Options Intelligence

BFH options intelligence

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 56 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:16 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

BFH currently carries bearish options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.50.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 8.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.50

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 5.21

Put-side skew

Trend fit 17

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.6%

RS 30.9

Expected move 8.3%
Put-call volume 5.21
Volume / OI 0.50
Reference IV 0.51
Max pain 100.00
Underlying 104.31
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 143

Research Brief

BFH has a bearish chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 95.66–112.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 92.50. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00.

Priced range95.66–112.96
Call concentration105.00
Put concentration92.50
Max pain reference100.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 95.66 to 112.96. Max pain at 100.00 sits inside that range, 4.1% below spot.

Spot Max pain
95.66104.31 ± 8.65112.96
Confirmation level

A close beyond 112.96 or below 95.66 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 56/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 80/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure80 × 42%
+33.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation52 × 22%
+11.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement17 × 26%
+4.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility69 × 10%
+6.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score56.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 92.50. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
57.50-44.9%
2
0
70.00-32.9%
10
46
75.00-28.1%
16
3
77.50-25.7%
91
0
80.00-23.3%
16
4
82.50-20.9%
20
6
85.00-18.5%
5
222
87.50-16.1%
0
250
90.00-13.7%
7
255
92.50-11.3%
7
38
95.00-8.9%
11
57
97.50-6.5%
11
26
100.00-4.1%
103
2
105.000.7%
120
222
110.005.5%
22
0
115.0010.2%
11
0
120.0015.0%
8
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.00× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.51 21 Aug 21d
0.40 18 Sep 49d
0.51 20 Nov 112d
0.56 18 Dec 140d
0.51 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

85
88
90
93
95
98
100
105
110
115
120
125
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
143 / 143
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

86/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-80
1W price+3.6%
Call premium43%
Put premium57%
Notional split C 43% / P 57% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.50 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 17/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1040 contracts traded, $649615 estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$649615
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 144 contracts traded, $310510 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$310510
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 91 contracts traded, $216468 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$216468
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 480 contracts traded, $111710 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$111710
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $30065 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$30065

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close108.07
1W+3.6%
RS30.9
Fair value+95.7%
Options pressure-80
Speculation52
Volatility69
Trend fit17

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.51 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 5.21 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.50 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:51 Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 7.7%
30 Jul 10:41 Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 9.0%
30 Jul 22:20 Volatility
Pressure -79
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 13:33 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 14:46 Volatility
Pressure -79
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 15:53 Bearish
Pressure -80
Move 8.7%
31 Jul 16:54 Bearish
Pressure -80
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 17:16 Bearish
Pressure -80
Move 8.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike57.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike62.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike67.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.18
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.40
Put-call16.55
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts41
Avg IV0.51
Put-call11.52
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts29
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.10
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts5
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.50
Skew0.00
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.51
Skew0.00
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.56
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBFH260821P00097500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike97.50
Volume-
OI57
IV0.52
ContractBFH260821P00095000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI38
IV0.56
ContractBFH260918P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.87
ContractBFH261120C00092500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike92.50
Volume-
OI12
IV0.56
ContractBFH261120P00085000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.84
ContractBFH261120C00030000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.00
ContractBFH260821C00125000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike125.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.55
ContractBFH261120P00060000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.89