Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
CEG options intelligence
Constellation Energy Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 21:21 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
CEG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
8.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.02
Balanced tape
Trend fit
63
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-4.2%
RS -23.2
Expected move
8.0%
Put-call volume
1.02
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.72
Max pain
265.00
Underlying
262.75
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1636
Research Brief
CEG has a mixed chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 241.65–283.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 300.00; the largest put concentration is 165.00. The most active strike by current volume is 240.00.
Priced range241.65–283.85
Call concentration300.00
Put concentration165.00
Max pain reference265.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 241.65 to 283.85. Max pain at 265.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
241.65262.75 ± 21.10283.85
Confirmation level
A close beyond 283.85 or below 241.65 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 6/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure6 × 42%
+2.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement63 × 26%
+16.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility82 × 10%
+8.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 300.00; the largest put concentration is 165.00. The most active strike by current volume is 240.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
397
165.00-37.2%
0
178
170.00-35.3%
0
187
230.00-12.5%
7
136
240.00-8.7%
23
50
245.00-6.8%
115
155
250.00-4.9%
57
96
255.00-2.9%
74
115
260.00-1.0%
129
66
265.000.9%
306
191
270.002.8%
167
65
275.004.7%
188
68
280.006.6%
232
9
285.008.5%
257
6
290.0010.4%
258
34
295.0012.3%
141
0
300.0014.2%
450
0
355.0035.1%
315
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.72
7 Aug
7d
0.62
14 Aug
14d
0.56
21 Aug
21d
0.53
28 Aug
28d
0.52
4 Sep
35d
0.50
11 Sep
42d
0.50
18 Sep
49d
0.49
20 Nov
112d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
213
218
223
228
233
238
243
248
253
258
263
270
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1636 / 1636
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-6
1W price-4.2%
Call premium66%
Put premium34%
Notional split
C 66% / P 34%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
63/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 257 contracts traded, $566822 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$566822
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 264 contracts traded, $314810 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$314810
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 106 contracts traded, $304735 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$304735
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 38 contracts traded, $274590 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$274590
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 230 contracts traded, $210304 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$210304
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close262.75
1W-4.2%
RS-23.2
Fair value+9.9%
Options pressure-6
Speculation40
Volatility82
Trend fit63
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:02
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 6.7%
30 Jul 15:28
Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 3.8%
30 Jul 15:48
Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 4.3%
30 Jul 16:48
Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 3.5%
30 Jul 18:02
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.8%
30 Jul 18:22
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 3.8%
30 Jul 18:38
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 3.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 158
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 397
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 178
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 20
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts154
Avg IV0.72
Put-call0.94
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts142
Avg IV0.62
Put-call1.19
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts156
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.57
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.53
Put-call4.91
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.45
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.69
Put IV0.69
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.61
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.54
Skew-0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.51
Skew-0.04
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.52
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCEG260821C00400000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike400.00
Volume204
OI1380
IV0.68
ContractCEG260918P00195000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike195.00
Volume153
OI813
IV0.55
ContractCEG260918P00180000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike180.00
Volume142
OI86
IV0.55
ContractCEG260828P00180000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume114
OI139
IV0.69
ContractCEG260821P00180000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume113
OI410
IV0.77
ContractCEG260821P00230000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume111
OI2682
IV0.55
ContractCEG260807P00240000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike240.00
Volume102
OI136
IV0.73
ContractCEG260821C00240000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike240.00
Volume100
OI274
IV0.60
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.