Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ARCC options intelligence
Ares Capital Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
24
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 12:53 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ARCC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 24/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
3.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.55
Call-side skew
Trend fit
41
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.1%
RS -8.9
Expected move
3.2%
Put-call volume
0.55
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.16
Max pain
18.00
Underlying
18.76
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
194
Research Brief
ARCC has a bullish chain read with 24/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 18.16–19.36; The largest call open-interest concentration is 19.00; the largest put concentration is 18.00. The most active strike by current volume is 19.00.
Priced range18.16–19.36
Call concentration19.00
Put concentration18.00
Max pain reference18.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 18.16 to 19.36. Max pain at 18.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
18.1618.76 ± 0.6019.36
Confirmation level
A close beyond 19.36 or below 18.16 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 24/100
Pressure is 24/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure24 × 42%
+10.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation6 × 22%
+1.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement41 × 26%
+10.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility24 × 10%
+2.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 19.00; the largest put concentration is 18.00. The most active strike by current volume is 19.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
11.00-41.4%
0
3
12.00-36.0%
0
12
13.00-30.7%
0
1
14.00-25.4%
0
50
15.00-20.0%
18
87
16.00-14.7%
4
564
17.00-9.4%
4521
3630
18.00-4.1%
184
2299
19.001.3%
5685
20
20.006.6%
1799
4
21.0011.9%
14
2
22.0017.3%
0
9
23.0022.6%
2
8
24.0027.9%
1
0
25.0033.3%
3
0
26.0038.6%
9
0
27.0043.9%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak20.00+$1.9M
Negative peak18.00-$766,635
Nearest balance18.36Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
10.00-46.7%
-$46,071
11.00-41.4%
-$23
12.00-36.0%
-$98
13.00-30.7%
-$17,193
14.00-25.4%
-$6,128
15.00-20.0%
-$196,769
16.00-14.7%
-$326,551
17.00-9.4%
-$480,839
18.00-4.1%
-$766,635
19.001.3%
+$1.3M
20.006.6%
+$1.9M
21.0011.9%
+$102,150
22.0017.3%
+$334,184
23.0022.6%
-$5,945
24.0027.9%
-$10,538
25.0033.3%
+$42,657
26.0038.6%
-$4,778
27.0043.9%
-$1,716
28.0049.3%
+$26
29.0054.6%
+$1
30.0059.9%
-$7,980
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.16
21 Aug
21d
0.23
18 Sep
49d
0.24
18 Dec
140d
0.20
15 Jan
168d
0.20
19 Mar
231d
0.22
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 194 / 194
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Likely noise
Visible options activity is too thin or mixed to support a strong intent classification.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $107,911 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+24
1W price-0.1%
Call premium53%
Put premium47%
Notional split
C 53% / P 47%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
41/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 635 contracts traded, $44,268 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$44,268
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1015 contracts traded, $32,988 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$32,988
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $8,040 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$8,040
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 361 contracts traded, $6,318 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$6,318
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 78 contracts traded, $4,290 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$4,290
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close18.76
1W-0.1%
RS-8.9
Fair value+4.7%
Options pressure24
Speculation6
Volatility24
Trend fit41
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:23
Bearish
Pressure -43
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 10:20
Bearish
Pressure -55
Move 3.9%
30 Jul 15:05
Bearish
Pressure -67
Move 3.9%
30 Jul 19:37
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 3.5%
2 Aug 11:53
Bullish
Pressure 24
Move 3.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike13.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 50
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 87
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4521
Puts · V 2 · OI 564
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 184
Puts · V 126 · OI 3630
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.16
Put-call0.51
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.08
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.24
Put-call2.74
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.20
Put-call10.67
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.20
Put-call29.50
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.19
Skew0.05
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.26
Skew0.11
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.12
Put IV0.30
Skew0.18
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.12
Put IV0.29
Skew0.17
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.12
Put IV0.30
Skew0.18
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractARCC260918C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike19.00
Volume1015
OI5546
IV0.14
ContractARCC261218P00016000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike16.00
Volume399
OI3912
IV0.34
ContractARCC260821C00019000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume361
OI5685
IV0.14
ContractARCC260821P00018000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume126
OI3630
IV0.19
ContractARCC261218C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume78
OI3794
IV0.12
ContractARCC261218C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike19.00
Volume78
OI818
IV0.11
ContractARCC280121P00018000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike18.00
Volume77
OI738
IV0.35
ContractARCC261218P00017000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike17.00
Volume69
OI946
IV0.30
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.