Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CAT options intelligence
Caterpillar Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 08:43 · partial chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CAT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.13.
Expected move
7.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.13
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.28
Put-side skew
Trend fit
92
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-8.3%
RS 11.3
Expected move
7.3%
Put-call volume
1.28
Volume / OI
0.13
Reference IV
0.67
Max pain
860.00
Underlying
814.81
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
CAT has a volatility chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 755.06–874.56; The largest call open-interest concentration is 925.00; the largest put concentration is 740.00. The most active strike by current volume is 765.00.
Priced range755.06–874.56
Call concentration925.00
Put concentration740.00
Max pain reference860.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 755.06 to 874.56. Max pain at 860.00 sits inside that range, 5.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
755.06814.81 ± 59.75874.56
Confirmation level
A close beyond 874.56 or below 755.06 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 13/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure13 × 42%
+5.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement92 × 26%
+23.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 925.00; the largest put concentration is 740.00. The most active strike by current volume is 765.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
458
520.00-36.2%
0
691
525.00-35.6%
0
1212
740.00-9.2%
7
11
765.00-6.1%
6
116
795.00-2.4%
506
131
800.00-1.8%
32
64
860.005.5%
55
86
870.006.8%
570
64
880.008.0%
127
78
900.0010.5%
254
21
905.0011.1%
327
44
925.0013.5%
984
23
955.0017.2%
16
37
965.0018.4%
129
0
1030.0026.4%
283
0
1100.0035.0%
406
0
1140.0039.9%
279
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.67
7 Aug
7d
0.57
14 Aug
14d
0.53
21 Aug
21d
0.51
28 Aug
28d
0.50
4 Sep
35d
0.48
11 Sep
42d
0.48
18 Sep
49d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
653
665
678
688
700
713
723
735
748
770
785
795
810
835
855
880
895
908
930
950
975
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain52%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 3844
- 52% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $24.6M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-13
1W price-8.3%
Call premium43%
Put premium57%
Notional split
C 43% / P 57%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.13
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
92/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 575 contracts traded, $2.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.2M
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 895 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 898 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1003 contracts traded, $2.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2.0M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 309 contracts traded, $1.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1.8M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close814.81
1W-8.3%
RS11.3
Fair value+83.1%
Options pressure-13
Speculation43
Volatility76
Trend fit92
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 16:31
Volatility
Pressure -29
Move 12.7%
29 Jul 16:52
Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 12.5%
29 Jul 17:18
Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 12.5%
29 Jul 17:40
Volatility
Pressure -26
Move 11.5%
29 Jul 18:01
Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 11.8%
29 Jul 18:27
Bearish
Pressure -27
Move 11.0%
29 Jul 18:43
Volatility
Pressure -26
Move 11.9%
29 Jul 19:10
Volatility
Pressure -26
Move 10.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike510.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 44
Strike515.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 20 · OI 152
Strike520.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 458
Strike525.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 691
Strike530.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 52
Strike535.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 57
Strike540.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 8
Strike545.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 117
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts398
Avg IV0.67
Put-call1.14
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts388
Avg IV0.57
Put-call3.31
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts238
Avg IV0.53
Put-call2.39
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts306
Avg IV0.51
Put-call1.36
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts284
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.25
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.68
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.57
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.55
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.51
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.50
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCAT260807P00765000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike765.00
Volume828
OI11
IV0.67
ContractCAT260807P00800000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike800.00
Volume516
OI131
IV0.65
ContractCAT260807C00860000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike860.00
Volume502
OI55
IV0.63
ContractCAT260821P00330000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike330.00
Volume399
OI54
IV1.10
ContractCAT260807C00955000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike955.00
Volume342
OI16
IV0.64
ContractCAT260814P00755000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike755.00
Volume334
OI15
IV0.55
ContractCAT260904C00860000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike860.00
Volume324
OI7
IV0.50
ContractCAT260821P00340000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike340.00
Volume309
OI26
IV1.06
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.