Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
EXPD options intelligence
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 00:53 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
EXPD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.
Expected move
7.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.11
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.64
Call-side skew
Trend fit
70
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-4.2%
RS 6.7
Expected move
7.4%
Put-call volume
0.64
Volume / OI
0.11
Reference IV
0.42
Max pain
165.00
Underlying
175.30
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
110
Research Brief
EXPD has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 162.33–188.27; The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 165.00. The most active strike by current volume is 145.00.
Priced range162.33–188.27
Call concentration180.00
Put concentration165.00
Max pain reference165.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 162.33 to 188.27. Max pain at 165.00 sits inside that range, 5.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
162.33175.30 ± 12.97188.27
Confirmation level
A close beyond 188.27 or below 162.33 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 27/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation14 × 22%
+3.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility59 × 10%
+5.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 180.00; the largest put concentration is 165.00. The most active strike by current volume is 145.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
18
110.00-37.3%
3
21
115.00-34.4%
1
193
125.00-28.7%
0
59
130.00-25.8%
0
28
135.00-23.0%
4
95
140.00-20.1%
185
101
145.00-17.3%
122
25
150.00-14.4%
125
125
155.00-11.6%
154
169
160.00-8.7%
100
605
165.00-5.9%
200
212
170.00-3.0%
190
205
175.00-0.2%
64
142
180.002.7%
574
78
185.005.5%
94
0
190.008.4%
93
0
195.0011.2%
144
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.42
21 Aug
21d
0.37
18 Sep
49d
0.35
20 Nov
112d
0.34
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 110 / 110
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $566816 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+27
1W price-4.2%
Call premium76%
Put premium24%
Notional split
C 76% / P 24%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.11
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
70/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 148 contracts traded, $203685 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$203685
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 86 contracts traded, $134490 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$134490
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 59 contracts traded, $60730 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$60730
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 27 contracts traded, $47250 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$47250
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 85 contracts traded, $28102 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$28102
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close167.89
1W-4.2%
RS6.7
Fair value+34.0%
Options pressure27
Speculation14
Volatility59
Trend fit70
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:18
Bullish
Pressure 92
Move 7.6%
30 Jul 10:13
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 7.3%
31 Jul 12:38
Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 17:12
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 18:01
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 23:53
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 7.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 17
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 8
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Strike105.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 14
Strike110.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 18
Strike115.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 10 · OI 21
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.42
Put-call1.57
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.37
Put-call1.18
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts37
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.24
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts19
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.13
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.05
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.35
Skew-0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.04
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractEXPD260918C00160000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.41
ContractEXPD270219C00185000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.35
ContractEXPD270219P00185000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.29
ContractEXPD260918P00160000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.35
ContractEXPD270219P00110000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike110.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.49
ContractEXPD270219C00150000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike150.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.39
ContractEXPD261120P00120000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.53
ContractEXPD261120C00220000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.43
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.