Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
FXE options intelligence
INVESCO CCY SHS EURO TR EURO SHS ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 13:16 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
FXE currently carries bearish options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
1.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
167.00
Put-side skew
Trend fit
36
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.5%
RS -8.8
Expected move
1.1%
Put-call volume
167.00
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.06
Max pain
106.00
Underlying
106.49
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
244
Research Brief
FXE has a bearish chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 105.37–107.61; The largest call open-interest concentration is 107.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 107.00.
Priced range105.37–107.61
Call concentration107.00
Put concentration105.00
Max pain reference106.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 105.37 to 107.61. Max pain at 106.00 sits inside that range, 0.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
105.37106.49 ± 1.12107.61
Confirmation level
A close beyond 107.61 or below 105.37 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation21 × 22%
+4.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement36 × 26%
+9.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility9 × 10%
+0.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 107.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 107.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
93.00-12.7%
0
2
94.00-11.7%
0
10
95.00-10.8%
5
51
96.00-9.9%
0
0
97.00-8.9%
0
0
98.00-8.0%
0
0
99.00-7.0%
1
1
100.00-6.1%
50
1
103.00-3.3%
0
6
104.00-2.3%
1
277
105.00-1.4%
79
107
106.00-0.5%
37
3
107.000.5%
258
1
108.001.4%
55
2
109.002.4%
1
0
111.004.2%
1
56
112.005.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$20.6MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak110.00+$530,294
Negative peak105.00-$15.4M
Nearest balance107.92Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
96.00-9.9%
-$3,759
97.00-8.9%
-$158
98.00-8.0%
-$4,622
99.00-7.0%
-$3,778
100.00-6.1%
-$129,058
101.00-5.2%
-$390
102.00-4.2%
-$6,149
103.00-3.3%
-$35,805
104.00-2.3%
-$144,665
105.00-1.4%
-$15.4M
106.00-0.5%
-$609,055
107.000.5%
-$5.1M
108.001.4%
+$430,083
109.002.4%
-$68,137
110.003.3%
+$530,294
111.004.2%
+$72,978
112.005.2%
-$25,462
113.006.1%
+$2,163
114.007.1%
-$135,606
115.008.0%
+$18,702
116.008.9%
+$1,309
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.06
21 Aug
17d
0.03
18 Sep
45d
0.05
18 Dec
136d
0.06
19 Mar
227d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
93
94
96
97
99
100
101
103
104
106
107
108
110
111
113
114
115
117
118
120
121
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 244 / 244
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,848 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-100
1W price+1.5%
Call premium1%
Put premium99%
Notional split
C 1% / P 99%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
36/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 69 contracts traded, $10,428 estimated gross traded notional, and 75% of visible notional.
$10,428
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 76 contracts traded, $1,710 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1,710
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 17 contracts traded, $815 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$815
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $725 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$725
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $150 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$150
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close106.49
1W+1.5%
RS-8.8
Fair value+5.2%
Options pressure-100
Speculation21
Volatility9
Trend fit36
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:27
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 1.1%
30 Jul 12:04
Bearish
Pressure -89
Move 1.4%
31 Jul 11:43
Bearish
Pressure -61
Move 1.5%
3 Aug 10:35
Bearish
Pressure -28
Move 1.0%
4 Aug 11:53
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 1.2%
5 Aug 12:16
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 1.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike93.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 1
Strike94.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Strike96.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike97.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike98.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike99.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 50
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.06
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.03
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.05
Put-call69.00
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.06
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.05
Put IV0.07
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.05
Skew-0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.07
Skew0.03
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.11
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractFXE260918P00105000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike105.00
Volume76
OI10207
IV0.05
ContractFXE261218P00107000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike107.00
Volume67
OI6483
IV0.07
ContractFXE260821P00107000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike107.00
Volume8
OI3
IV0.05
ContractFXE260821P00105000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume7
OI277
IV0.07
ContractFXE260821P00106000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike106.00
Volume2
OI107
IV0.07
ContractFXE260821P00093000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike93.00
Volume2
OI1
IV0.25
ContractFXE260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume1
OI847
IV0.08
ContractFXE260918P00114000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike114.00
Volume1
OI479
IV0.12
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Market Watch
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Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.