Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
RCAT options intelligence
Red Cat Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
33
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 03:34 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
RCAT currently carries bullish options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.09.
Expected move
1.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.09
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.51
Call-side skew
Trend fit
8
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.4%
RS -36.3
Expected move
1.6%
Put-call volume
0.51
Volume / OI
0.09
Reference IV
0.55
Max pain
7.50
Underlying
7.64
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
618
Research Brief
RCAT has a bullish chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.52–7.76; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00.
Priced range7.52–7.76
Call concentration12.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference7.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 7.52 to 7.76. Max pain at 7.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
7.527.64 ± 0.127.76
Confirmation level
A close beyond 7.76 or below 7.52 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 33/100
Pressure is 41/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure41 × 42%
+17.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement8 × 26%
+2.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility45 × 10%
+4.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
305
5.50-28.0%
10
1081
6.00-21.5%
6
926
6.50-14.9%
81
2526
7.00-8.4%
431
1095
7.50-1.8%
1110
508
8.004.7%
1875
183
8.5011.3%
1441
176
9.0017.8%
1370
97
9.5024.3%
1471
73
10.0030.9%
830
9
10.5037.4%
485
12
11.0044.0%
426
0
11.5050.5%
470
2
12.0057.1%
2665
3
12.5063.6%
661
6
13.0070.2%
839
5
15.0096.3%
246
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.55
31 Jul
0d
1.42
7 Aug
7d
1.27
14 Aug
14d
1.19
21 Aug
21d
1.18
28 Aug
28d
1.14
4 Sep
35d
1.10
11 Sep
42d
1.11
18 Sep
49d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
7
7
8
8
9
9
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 618 / 618
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+41
1W price-1.4%
Call premium63%
Put premium37%
Notional split
C 63% / P 37%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.09
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
8/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 7012 contracts traded, $483378 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$483378
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 982 contracts traded, $136880 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$136880
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 449 contracts traded, $136828 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$136828
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 317 contracts traded, $116517 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$116517
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 262 contracts traded, $97450 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$97450
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close7.53
1W-1.4%
RS-36.3
Fair value+23.3%
Options pressure41
Speculation42
Volatility45
Trend fit8
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:59
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 9.0%
30 Jul 10:48
Bullish
Pressure 24
Move 10.9%
31 Jul 10:33
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 15:57
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 2.9%
31 Jul 17:07
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 5.1%
31 Jul 18:01
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 2.0%
31 Jul 19:02
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 1.5%
31 Jul 20:12
Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 1.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 113
Strike2.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 28
Puts · V 0 · OI 112
Strike3.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Strike4.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 11
Puts · V 13 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 11 · OI 13
Puts · V 7 · OI 2
Strike5.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 305
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 1081
Strike6.50
Calls · V 9 · OI 81
Puts · V 7 · OI 926
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.54
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV1.42
Put-call0.58
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV1.27
Put-call1.10
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV1.19
Put-call2.87
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV1.18
Put-call0.83
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.14
Skew-0.64
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.48
Put IV1.42
Skew-0.06
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.32
Put IV1.28
Skew-0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.21
Put IV1.22
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.23
Put IV1.17
Skew-0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRCAT270115C00022000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike22.00
Volume5470
OI690
IV1.23
ContractRCAT260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2298
OI453
IV0.85
ContractRCAT260821P00003000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume1100
OI5
IV1.76
ContractRCAT261016C00020000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike20.00
Volume948
OI530
IV1.32
ContractRCAT260731C00008000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike8.00
Volume612
OI1875
IV0.79
ContractRCAT261120P00007000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.00
Volume567
OI606
IV1.11
ContractRCAT260821C00013000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike13.00
Volume479
OI603
IV1.39
ContractRCAT260807C00009000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume445
OI917
IV1.48
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.