Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
RXO options intelligence
RXO Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 04:13 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
RXO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 21.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
21.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.16
Call-side skew
Trend fit
46
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-21.0%
RS 6.3
Expected move
21.9%
Put-call volume
0.16
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.75
Max pain
20.00
Underlying
25.63
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
136
Research Brief
RXO has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 20.01–31.25; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.
Priced range20.01–31.25
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference20.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 20.01 to 31.25. Max pain at 20.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
20.0125.63 ± 5.6231.25
Confirmation level
A close beyond 31.25 or below 20.01 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 61/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure61 × 42%
+25.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+2.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement46 × 26%
+11.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility92 × 10%
+9.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-90.2%
1
5
5.00-80.5%
0
3314
7.50-70.7%
1
1138
10.00-61.0%
1
896
12.50-51.2%
15
63
15.00-41.5%
29
312
17.50-31.7%
137
3073
20.00-22.0%
144
23
22.50-12.2%
131
25
25.00-2.5%
633
4
30.0017.1%
587
0
35.0036.6%
1084
0
40.0056.1%
14
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.75
21 Aug
22d
0.79
18 Sep
50d
0.74
20 Nov
113d
0.74
18 Dec
141d
0.72
15 Jan
169d
0.72
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
23
25
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 136 / 136
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $44338 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+61
1W price-21.0%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
46/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 501 contracts traded, $26302 estimated gross traded notional, and 59% of visible notional.
$26302
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $7330 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$7330
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $5285 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$5285
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 83 contracts traded, $2440 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2440
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1860 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1860
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close20.25
1W-21.0%
RS6.3
Fair value-0.4%
Options pressure61
Speculation9
Volatility92
Trend fit46
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:43
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 17.2%
29 Jul 19:29
Volatility
Pressure 56
Move 17.0%
30 Jul 17:19
Volatility
Pressure 43
Move 22.2%
31 Jul 00:00
Volatility
Pressure 37
Move 21.9%
31 Jul 03:13
Volatility
Pressure 61
Move 21.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3314
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1138
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 896
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 29
Puts · V 64 · OI 63
Strike17.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 137
Puts · V 11 · OI 312
Strike20.00
Calls · V 28 · OI 144
Puts · V 8 · OI 3073
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.16
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.79
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.74
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.74
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts26
Avg IV0.72
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.93
Skew0.30
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.80
Skew-0.02
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.77
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.73
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRXO260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume501
OI633
IV0.90
ContractRXO260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume64
OI63
IV0.57
ContractRXO260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume28
OI144
IV0.79
ContractRXO260821P00017500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume11
OI312
IV0.93
ContractRXO260821P00020000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume8
OI3073
IV0.86
ContractRXO260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume8
OI131
IV0.81
ContractRXO270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume6
OI12
IV0.68
ContractRXO260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume4
OI137
IV0.65
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.