Ticker Options Intelligence

PBT options intelligence

Permian Basin Royalty Trust options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 04:48 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

PBT currently carries bullish options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 11.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.28

Call-side skew

Trend fit 39

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +2.9%

RS 33.2

Expected move 11.3%
Put-call volume 0.28
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.41
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 29.23
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 76

Research Brief

PBT has a bullish chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 25.93–32.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range25.93–32.53
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 25.93 to 32.53. Max pain at 25.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
25.9329.23 ± 3.3032.53
Confirmation level

A close beyond 32.53 or below 25.93 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 66/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure66 × 42%
+27.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement39 × 26%
+10.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-48.7%
0
0
17.50-40.1%
0
0
20.00-31.6%
0
0
22.50-23.0%
0
3
25.00-14.5%
19
0
30.002.6%
53
0
35.0019.7%
10
0
40.0036.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.88× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.41 21 Aug 22d
0.45 18 Sep 50d
0.43 18 Dec 141d
0.46 19 Mar 232d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

25
30
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
76 / 76
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

77/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $29812 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+66
1W price+2.9%
Call premium43%
Put premium57%
Notional split C 43% / P 57% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 39/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 12 Aug Matched earnings event is 12 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 25 contracts traded, $17000 estimated gross traded notional, and 57% of visible notional.
$17000
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $5700 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$5700
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 51 contracts traded, $2932 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$2932
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $2610 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2610
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1570 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1570

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close29.23
1W+2.9%
RS33.2
Fair value+91.3%
Options pressure66
Speculation8
Volatility68
Trend fit39

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 11.3% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.41 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.28 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:09 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.5%
30 Jul 10:56 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 12.2%
30 Jul 15:15 Bearish
Pressure -49
Move 18.0%
30 Jul 17:31 Bearish
Pressure -43
Move 18.1%
31 Jul 03:48 Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 11.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 19
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike30.00
Calls · V 18 · OI 53
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.45
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.46
Put-call2.27

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.33
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.22
Skew-0.25
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.57
Skew0.12
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.51
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPBT260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume51
OI4103
IV0.47
ContractPBT270319P00035000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike35.00
Volume25
OI-
IV0.41
ContractPBT260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume18
OI53
IV0.52
ContractPBT261218C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike30.00
Volume10
OI122
IV0.45
ContractPBT270319C00035000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike35.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.41
ContractPBT270319C00015000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike15.00
Volume1
OI1
IV0.72
ContractPBT260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI1009
IV0.22
ContractPBT260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI650
IV0.48