Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MSFT options intelligence
Microsoft Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 04:47 · partial chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MSFT currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.40.
Expected move
1.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.40
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.41
Call-side skew
Trend fit
17
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+21.8%
RS -5.4
Expected move
1.9%
Put-call volume
0.41
Volume / OI
0.40
Reference IV
0.26
Max pain
402.50
Underlying
464.72
Nearest expiry
3 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
MSFT has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 456.07–473.37; The largest call open-interest concentration is 470.00; the largest put concentration is 382.50. The most active strike by current volume is 460.00.
Priced range456.07–473.37
Call concentration470.00
Put concentration382.50
Max pain reference402.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 456.07 to 473.37. Max pain at 402.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
456.07464.72 ± 8.65473.37
Confirmation level
A close beyond 473.37 or below 456.07 at the 3 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 48/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure48 × 42%
+20.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation49 × 22%
+10.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement17 × 26%
+4.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility26 × 10%
+2.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 470.00; the largest put concentration is 382.50. The most active strike by current volume is 460.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
687
395.00-15.0%
615
892
400.00-13.9%
1066
1190
440.00-5.3%
250
427
445.00-4.2%
334
390
447.50-3.7%
169
600
450.00-3.2%
1863
130
452.50-2.6%
284
619
455.00-2.1%
682
135
457.50-1.6%
342
115
460.00-1.0%
1109
8
462.50-0.5%
261
18
465.000.1%
642
33
467.500.6%
199
21
470.001.1%
4319
3
475.002.2%
1015
0
480.003.3%
1133
0
500.007.6%
1059
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.26
3 Aug
3d
0.32
5 Aug
5d
0.33
7 Aug
7d
0.30
10 Aug
10d
0.30
12 Aug
12d
0.31
14 Aug
14d
0.31
21 Aug
21d
0.30
28 Aug
28d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
373
380
388
395
400
408
415
423
430
438
443
450
458
465
473
480
488
493
500
510
525
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain52%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 3874
- 52% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $622.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+48
1W price+21.8%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.40
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
17/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 40254 contracts traded, $163.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$163.4M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 18391 contracts traded, $81.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$81.8M
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 103462 contracts traded, $64.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$64.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 81702 contracts traded, $55.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$55.8M
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 34271 contracts traded, $50.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$50.1M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close464.72
1W+21.8%
RS-5.4
Fair value+11.1%
Options pressure48
Speculation49
Volatility26
Trend fit17
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 16:05
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 7.4%
29 Jul 16:30
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 7.2%
29 Jul 16:50
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 7.5%
29 Jul 17:13
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 7.6%
29 Jul 17:33
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 7.6%
29 Jul 18:00
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 7.5%
29 Jul 18:23
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 7.7%
29 Jul 18:42
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 7.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike300.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 34
Strike305.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike310.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 27
Strike315.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 11 · OI 24
Strike320.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 9 · OI 19
Strike322.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 37
Strike325.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 75
Strike327.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 18
Puts · V 3 · OI 45
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Contracts166
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.81
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Contracts164
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.52
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts200
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.59
Expiry10 Aug 2026
Contracts158
Avg IV0.30
Put-call1.14
Expiry12 Aug 2026
Contracts156
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.57
Skew
Call/put IV balance
3 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.27
Skew0.02
5 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.34
Skew0.03
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.34
Skew0.02
10 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.30
Skew0.02
12 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.31
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMSFT260821C00500000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike500.00
Volume81296
OI117051
IV0.29
ContractMSFT260807C00470000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike470.00
Volume30138
OI25215
IV0.33
ContractMSFT260821C00460000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike460.00
Volume20752
OI69448
IV0.30
ContractMSFT261016C00500000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike500.00
Volume19486
OI5454
IV0.29
ContractMSFT260918C00450000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike450.00
Volume18990
OI28661
IV0.31
ContractMSFT261016C00570000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike570.00
Volume17865
OI62
IV0.29
ContractMSFT260918C00530000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike530.00
Volume17651
OI22692
IV0.28
ContractMSFT260918C00430000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike430.00
Volume13867
OI18707
IV0.32
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.