Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
TWLO options intelligence
Twilio Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 11:00 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
TWLO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
14.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.72
Call-side skew
Trend fit
83
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+3.1%
RS 29.5
Expected move
14.8%
Put-call volume
0.72
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
1.35
Max pain
200.00
Underlying
197.35
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1410
Research Brief
TWLO has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 168.10–226.60; The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 215.00. The most active strike by current volume is 180.00.
Priced range168.10–226.60
Call concentration200.00
Put concentration215.00
Max pain reference200.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 168.10 to 226.60. Max pain at 200.00 sits inside that range, 1.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
168.10197.35 ± 29.25226.60
Confirmation level
A close beyond 226.60 or below 168.10 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 21/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure21 × 42%
+8.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement83 × 26%
+21.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 215.00. The most active strike by current volume is 180.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
38
135.00-31.6%
1
143
140.00-29.1%
4
22
160.00-18.9%
2
46
175.00-11.3%
0
14
180.00-8.8%
3
64
185.00-6.3%
52
32
187.50-5.0%
45
74
190.00-3.7%
8
6
200.001.3%
2818
102
207.505.1%
2
5
210.006.4%
156
221
215.008.9%
94
70
220.0011.5%
229
0
222.5012.7%
48
0
225.0014.0%
39
0
230.0016.5%
40
0
260.0031.7%
71
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$4.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak220.00+$1.8M
Negative peak185.00-$383,537
Nearest balance197.52Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
172.50-12.6%
-$23,278
175.00-11.3%
-$90,160
177.50-10.1%
-$35,039
180.00-8.8%
+$271,608
182.50-7.5%
-$2,689
185.00-6.3%
-$383,537
187.50-5.0%
+$4,909
190.00-3.7%
-$64,638
192.50-2.5%
-$21,165
195.00-1.2%
-$74,350
197.500.1%
-$9,559
200.001.3%
+$1.2M
202.502.6%
-$1,287
205.003.9%
-$3,166
207.505.1%
-$43,323
210.006.4%
+$398,258
212.507.7%
-$20,450
215.008.9%
-$50,364
217.5010.2%
+$743
220.0011.5%
+$1.8M
222.5012.7%
+$19,907
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.35
7 Aug
7d
1.03
14 Aug
14d
0.89
21 Aug
21d
0.82
28 Aug
28d
0.76
4 Sep
35d
0.73
11 Sep
42d
0.71
18 Sep
49d
0.66
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
160
165
168
170
175
180
183
185
190
195
198
200
205
210
213
215
220
225
228
230
235
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move3.1%
30 Jul
Bullish · 49
3.1% through expiry
3.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1410 / 1410
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+21
1W price+3.1%
Call premium81%
Put premium19%
Notional split
C 81% / P 19%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
83/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 351 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 770 contracts traded, $825,040 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$825,040
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM
puts cluster with 538 contracts traded, $318,598 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$318,598
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 493 contracts traded, $184,205 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$184,205
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 299 contracts traded, $145,552 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$145,552
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close197.35
1W+3.1%
RS29.5
Fair value+94.8%
Options pressure21
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit83
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:14
Volatility
Pressure 32
Move 5.4%
30 Jul 10:11
Volatility
Pressure -24
Move 5.0%
31 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 3.3%
3 Aug 10:00
Volatility
Pressure 21
Move 14.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 17
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike123.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike124.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike126.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike127.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike128.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts160
Avg IV1.35
Put-call1.59
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts156
Avg IV1.03
Put-call0.07
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.89
Put-call9.11
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.82
Put-call0.24
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.76
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.29
Put IV1.36
Skew0.07
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.01
Put IV1.03
Skew0.02
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.87
Put IV0.89
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.84
Skew0.04
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.78
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTWLO261016C00240000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike240.00
Volume518
OI134
IV0.65
ContractTWLO260807P00180000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume435
OI14
IV1.29
ContractTWLO260821P00160000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike160.00
Volume412
OI105
IV0.92
ContractTWLO260918C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume202
OI359
IV0.73
ContractTWLO260918C00185000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike185.00
Volume152
OI501
IV0.73
ContractTWLO260918P00120000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike120.00
Volume150
OI648
IV0.93
ContractTWLO260918C00150000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike150.00
Volume150
OI190
IV0.79
ContractTWLO260807C00230000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume96
OI40
IV1.38
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Twilio Inc (TWLO) pullback interrupts a strong 12-week run21 Jul 2026 00:29
Twilio Inc (TWLO) builds on broad weekly gains while volume signals diverge13 Jul 2026 17:40
Twilio Inc (TWLO) weekly rebound carries a lighter-volume caveat6 Jul 2026 12:24
Twilio Inc (TWLO) hit by sharp weekly reversal despite active trend19 Jun 2026 12:53
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.