Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
KNSA options intelligence
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:27 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
KNSA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
11.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.02
Call-side skew
Trend fit
4
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+18.3%
RS 50.5
Expected move
11.4%
Put-call volume
0.02
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.47
Max pain
60.00
Underlying
62.84
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
240
Research Brief
KNSA has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 55.65–70.03; The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00.
Priced range55.65–70.03
Call concentration65.00
Put concentration75.00
Max pain reference60.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 55.65 to 70.03. Max pain at 60.00 sits inside that range, 4.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
55.6562.84 ± 7.1970.03
Confirmation level
A close beyond 70.03 or below 55.65 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation5 × 22%
+1.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement4 × 26%
+1.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility73 × 10%
+7.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-52.3%
0
2
35.00-44.3%
0
0
40.00-36.3%
2
0
45.00-28.4%
0
4
50.00-20.4%
4
16
55.00-12.5%
6
58
60.00-4.5%
144
10
65.003.4%
302
5
70.0011.4%
36
73
75.0019.4%
18
11
80.0027.3%
26
11
85.0035.3%
10
0
90.0043.2%
10
0
95.0051.2%
0
0
100.0059.1%
0
0
105.0067.1%
0
0
110.0075.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.47
21 Aug
22d
0.38
18 Sep
50d
0.46
16 Oct
78d
0.49
20 Nov
113d
0.48
18 Dec
141d
0.58
15 Jan
169d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
55
60
65
70
75
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 240 / 240
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $114892 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+18.3%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
4/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $52610 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$52610
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 27 contracts traded, $32852 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$32852
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 32 contracts traded, $19290 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$19290
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $9750 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$9750
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $390 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$390
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close74.34
1W+18.3%
RS50.5
Fair value+153.1%
Options pressure100
Speculation5
Volatility73
Trend fit4
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:50
Bullish
Pressure 79
Move 24.6%
30 Jul 10:41
Volatility
Pressure 44
Move 12.3%
31 Jul 13:27
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 16
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 144
Puts · V 0 · OI 58
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 302
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.46
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.48
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.23
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.27
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.29
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.60
Skew0.11
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.54
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractKNSA261016C00065000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike65.00
Volume20
OI394
IV0.45
ContractKNSA260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume16
OI36
IV0.50
ContractKNSA270115C00050000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume16
OI31
IV0.65
ContractKNSA260821C00080000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume9
OI26
IV0.51
ContractKNSA260821C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume6
OI10
IV0.65
ContractKNSA261016C00060000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume5
OI36
IV0.48
ContractKNSA260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume3
OI12
IV0.45
ContractKNSA260821P00075000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume2
OI73
IV0.45
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.