Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MPWR options intelligence
Monolithic Power Systems Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 06:46 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MPWR currently carries mixed options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
17.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.88
Balanced tape
Trend fit
91
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+6.9%
RS 16.0
Expected move
17.2%
Put-call volume
0.88
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.88
Max pain
1400.00
Underlying
1333.81
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
MPWR has a mixed chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1103.91–1563.71; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1400.00; the largest put concentration is 1140.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1300.00.
Priced range1103.91–1563.71
Call concentration1400.00
Put concentration1140.00
Max pain reference1400.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 1103.91 to 1563.71. Max pain at 1400.00 sits inside that range, 5.0% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
1103.911333.81 ± 229.901563.71
Confirmation level
A close beyond 1563.71 or below 1103.91 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 4/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure4 × 42%
+1.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement91 × 26%
+23.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 1400.00; the largest put concentration is 1140.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1300.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
68
1000.00-25.0%
3
71
1060.00-20.5%
3
111
1100.00-17.5%
1
113
1140.00-14.5%
9
31
1200.00-10.0%
57
83
1260.00-5.5%
11
51
1300.00-2.5%
96
75
1320.00-1.0%
31
39
1340.000.5%
14
93
1380.003.5%
20
20
1400.005.0%
272
11
1410.005.7%
110
88
1420.006.5%
10
69
1450.008.7%
5
0
1580.0018.5%
245
2
1600.0020.0%
92
15
1700.0027.5%
86
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.88
21 Aug
22d
0.81
18 Sep
50d
0.78
20 Nov
113d
0.76
18 Dec
141d
0.74
15 Jan
169d
0.74
19 Feb
204d
0.73
19 Mar
232d
0.72
21 May
295d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
1080
1120
1160
1180
1220
1260
1300
1340
1360
1400
1420
1440
1460
1470
1490
1510
1530
1550
1560
1580
1600
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain94%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 2126
- 94% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $8.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+4
1W price+6.9%
Call premium57%
Put premium43%
Notional split
C 57% / P 43%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
91/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 113 contracts traded, $1.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$1.5M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 38 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 313 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 237 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 18 contracts traded, $842750 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$842750
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close1426.03
1W+6.9%
RS16.0
Fair value+73.8%
Options pressure4
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit91
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:04
Volatility
Pressure -18
Move 18.4%
30 Jul 10:03
Volatility
Pressure -13
Move 18.3%
31 Jul 05:46
Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 17.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike700.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 14
Strike710.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike720.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike730.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike740.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike750.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike760.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike770.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts224
Avg IV0.88
Put-call0.86
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts260
Avg IV0.81
Put-call0.83
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts248
Avg IV0.78
Put-call3.27
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts290
Avg IV0.76
Put-call2.33
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts254
Avg IV0.74
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.88
Put IV0.92
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.83
Skew0.03
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.80
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.78
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.76
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMPWR260821P01100000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1100.00
Volume95
OI111
IV0.92
ContractMPWR260821C01300000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1300.00
Volume95
OI96
IV0.89
ContractMPWR260821P01000000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1000.00
Volume45
OI68
IV0.99
ContractMPWR260821C01470000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1470.00
Volume43
OI6
IV0.87
ContractMPWR270521C01300000
SideCall
Expiry21 May 2027
Strike1300.00
Volume38
OI78
IV0.72
ContractMPWR260821C01320000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1320.00
Volume31
OI31
IV0.89
ContractMPWR260821C01600000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1600.00
Volume30
OI92
IV0.86
ContractMPWR260821P01240000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1240.00
Volume27
OI37
IV0.90
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.