Ticker Options Intelligence

TCX options intelligence

Tucows Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 10:15 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

TCX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 26.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 26.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.96

Put-side skew

Trend fit 94

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +77.3%

RS -21.9

Expected move 26.2%
Put-call volume 1.96
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 1.28
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 15.44
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 80

Research Brief

TCX has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 11.39–19.49; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range11.39–19.49
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 11.39 to 19.49. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 19.0% below spot.

Spot Max pain
11.3915.44 ± 4.0519.49
Confirmation level

A close beyond 19.49 or below 11.39 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 27/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement94 × 26%
+24.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-83.8%
0
0
5.00-67.6%
0
0
7.50-51.4%
0
24
10.00-35.2%
1
170
12.50-19.0%
13
2
15.00-2.8%
0
0
17.5013.3%
8
0
20.0029.5%
0
0
22.5045.7%
0
0
25.0061.9%
0
0
30.0094.3%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.07× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.28 21 Aug 21d
0.74 18 Sep 49d
0.87 20 Nov 112d
0.62 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

13
15
18
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
80 / 80
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

94/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $15160 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-27
1W price+77.3%
Call premium65%
Put premium35%
Notional split C 65% / P 35% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 94/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $7905 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$7905
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 34 contracts traded, $1916 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$1916
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1400 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$1400
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1035 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1035
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $930 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$930

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close15.44
1W+77.3%
RS-21.9
Fair value-19.1%
Options pressure-27
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit94

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 26.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.28 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.96 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:42 Volatility
Pressure -66
Move 24.0%
29 Jul 19:15 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 15.0%
29 Jul 20:59 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 15.0%
30 Jul 15:02 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 15.0%
31 Jul 03:32 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 13.1%
2 Aug 09:15 Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 26.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 11 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 24
Strike12.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 13
Puts · V 27 · OI 170
Strike15.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike17.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 8
Puts · V 3 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV1.28
Put-call1.68
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.74
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.87
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.62
Put-call1.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.29
Put IV1.29
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.89
Skew0.72
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.99
Put IV0.99
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.84
Skew0.69

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTCX260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume27
OI170
IV1.29
ContractTCX260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume11
OI1
IV1.95
ContractTCX260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume4
OI8
IV1.09
ContractTCX260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume4
OI-
IV0.89
ContractTCX260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume4
OI-
IV1.94
ContractTCX260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume4
OI-
IV1.46
ContractTCX260821P00017500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume3
OI-
IV1.09
ContractTCX260918P00017500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume3
OI-
IV0.81