Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
FBTC options intelligence
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 12:44 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
FBTC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
3.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.25
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.0%
RS -33.2
Expected move
3.3%
Put-call volume
0.25
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.36
Max pain
54.50
Underlying
54.71
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
924
Research Brief
FBTC has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 52.88–56.54; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.50.
Priced range52.88–56.54
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference54.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 52.88 to 56.54. Max pain at 54.50 sits inside that range, 0.4% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
52.8854.71 ± 1.8356.54
Confirmation level
A close beyond 56.54 or below 52.88 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 66/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure66 × 42%
+27.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
111
50.00-8.6%
0
10
50.50-7.7%
0
20
51.00-6.8%
2
32
53.00-3.1%
51
6
54.00-1.3%
6
11
54.50-0.4%
9
25
55.000.5%
11188
6
55.501.4%
73
10
56.002.4%
47
29
56.503.3%
11046
5
57.004.2%
86
1
57.505.1%
64
0
58.006.0%
29
1
58.506.9%
21
1
59.007.8%
112
0
60.009.7%
89
0
62.0013.3%
22
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$12.8MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak56.50+$6.1M
Negative peak40.00-$760,723
Nearest balance54.50Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
49.50-9.5%
-$60
50.00-8.6%
-$45,255
50.50-7.7%
-$400
51.00-6.8%
-$8,748
51.50-5.9%
-$636
52.00-5.0%
-$141,354
52.50-4.0%
-$3,113
53.00-3.1%
-$7,876
53.50-2.2%
+$22,439
54.00-1.3%
+$9,365
54.50-0.4%
-$1,040
55.000.5%
+$6.0M
55.501.4%
+$42,860
56.002.4%
+$61,999
56.503.3%
+$6.1M
57.004.2%
+$62,114
57.505.1%
+$51,682
58.006.0%
+$70,529
58.506.9%
+$27,067
59.007.8%
+$121,543
59.508.8%
+$3,277
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.36
7 Aug
4d
0.35
14 Aug
11d
0.34
21 Aug
18d
0.35
28 Aug
25d
0.36
4 Sep
32d
0.35
11 Sep
39d
0.36
18 Sep
46d
0.40
18 Dec
137d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
44
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
61
63
65
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move2.0%
30 Jul
Bullish · 42
-2.0% through expiry
1.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 924 / 924
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $584,656 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+66
1W price-2.0%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 83 contracts traded, $201,270 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$201,270
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1122 contracts traded, $104,994 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$104,994
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 306 contracts traded, $92,582 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$92,582
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 165 contracts traded, $45,422 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$45,422
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 80 contracts traded, $34,260 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$34,260
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close54.71
1W-2.0%
RS-33.2
Fair value-23.1%
Options pressure66
Speculation41
Volatility38
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:20
Bullish
Pressure 70
Move 3.0%
30 Jul 11:57
Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 2.5%
31 Jul 11:34
Bullish
Pressure 73
Move 1.5%
3 Aug 10:32
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 3.7%
4 Aug 11:44
Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 3.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike43.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike44.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike46.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike46.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike47.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.08
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.04
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.42
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.35
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.12
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.01
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.42
Skew0.14
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.41
Skew0.11
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.43
Skew0.13
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.42
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractFBTC260821C00062000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike62.00
Volume400
OI772
IV0.34
ContractFBTC260828C00060000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume396
OI1670
IV0.41
ContractFBTC260918C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume162
OI856
IV0.38
ContractFBTC260807C00055500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike55.50
Volume142
OI73
IV0.31
ContractFBTC260807C00057000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike57.00
Volume140
OI86
IV0.34
ContractFBTC280121P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike30.00
Volume132
OI2915
IV0.61
ContractFBTC260918C00059000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike59.00
Volume128
OI504
IV0.35
ContractFBTC260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume127
OI171
IV0.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.