Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
LW options intelligence
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 06:32 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
LW currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
1.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.99
Balanced tape
Trend fit
98
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+6.0%
RS -7.4
Expected move
1.9%
Put-call volume
0.99
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.35
Max pain
49.00
Underlying
49.58
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
332
Research Brief
LW has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 48.66–50.50; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 49.00. The most active strike by current volume is 53.00.
Priced range48.66–50.50
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration49.00
Max pain reference49.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 48.66 to 50.50. Max pain at 49.00 sits inside that range, 1.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
48.6649.58 ± 0.9250.50
Confirmation level
A close beyond 50.50 or below 48.66 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 2/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure2 × 42%
+1.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation25 × 22%
+5.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility32 × 10%
+3.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 49.00. The most active strike by current volume is 53.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
21
37.00-25.4%
1
93
40.00-19.3%
1
61
41.00-17.3%
1
54
43.00-13.3%
49
18
44.00-11.3%
96
113
45.00-9.2%
68
29
46.00-7.2%
52
123
47.00-5.2%
91
214
48.00-3.2%
98
549
49.00-1.2%
189
169
50.000.8%
98
8
51.002.9%
365
1
52.004.9%
61
2
53.006.9%
100
10
54.008.9%
63
1
55.0010.9%
479
0
56.0012.9%
44
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.35
31 Jul
1d
0.36
21 Aug
22d
0.31
18 Sep
50d
0.42
16 Oct
78d
0.41
15 Jan
169d
0.40
17 Dec
505d
0.41
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 332 / 332
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $162810 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+2
1W price+6.0%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split
C 78% / P 22%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
98/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 88 contracts traded, $34995 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$34995
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 155 contracts traded, $32698 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$32698
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $22580 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$22580
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $15175 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$15175
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 411 contracts traded, $12315 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$12315
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close49.58
1W+6.0%
RS-7.4
Fair value-24.3%
Options pressure2
Speculation25
Volatility32
Trend fit98
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:36
Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 3.0%
30 Jul 01:49
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 4.3%
31 Jul 05:32
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 1.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike36.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike37.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Strike38.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike39.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 8
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 10 · OI 93
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.46
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.36
Put-call1.87
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.37
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.28
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts70
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.21
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.77
Skew0.40
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.41
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.40
Skew0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.46
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.49
Skew0.12
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLW260821P00047500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike47.50
Volume410
OI769
IV0.41
ContractLW260821C00060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume189
OI1806
IV0.34
ContractLW270115C00055000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike55.00
Volume56
OI1647
IV0.38
ContractLW261016C00055000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike55.00
Volume46
OI799
IV0.38
ContractLW260918C00057500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike57.50
Volume42
OI-
IV0.31
ContractLW260918C00055000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume39
OI279
IV0.31
ContractLW260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume28
OI650
IV0.33
ContractLW260731C00053000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike53.00
Volume24
OI100
IV0.55
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.