Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
CASY options intelligence
Caseys General Stores Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 06:19 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
CASY currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
6.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.25
Balanced tape
Trend fit
88
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.3%
RS 21.8
Expected move
6.9%
Put-call volume
1.25
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.35
Max pain
820.00
Underlying
861.63
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
484
Research Brief
CASY has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 802.38–920.88; The largest call open-interest concentration is 900.00; the largest put concentration is 530.00. The most active strike by current volume is 780.00.
Priced range802.38–920.88
Call concentration900.00
Put concentration530.00
Max pain reference820.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 802.38 to 920.88. Max pain at 820.00 sits inside that range, 4.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
802.38861.63 ± 59.25920.88
Confirmation level
A close beyond 920.88 or below 802.38 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 11/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+1.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement88 × 26%
+23.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility52 × 10%
+5.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 900.00; the largest put concentration is 530.00. The most active strike by current volume is 780.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
218
530.00-38.5%
4
211
540.00-37.3%
0
96
700.00-18.8%
38
83
740.00-14.1%
32
114
760.00-11.8%
32
166
780.00-9.5%
78
47
800.00-7.2%
93
59
820.00-4.8%
160
72
830.00-3.7%
47
132
840.00-2.5%
68
51
850.00-1.3%
75
36
860.00-0.2%
118
68
880.002.1%
176
110
900.004.5%
286
7
920.006.8%
205
3
940.009.1%
138
1
950.0010.3%
149
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.35
21 Aug
22d
0.41
18 Sep
50d
0.38
20 Nov
113d
0.38
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
690
710
720
740
750
770
790
800
820
830
850
870
880
900
910
930
950
960
980
990
1020
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 484 / 484
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $554792 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-11
1W price+0.3%
Call premium85%
Put premium15%
Notional split
C 85% / P 15%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
88/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $246880 estimated gross traded notional, and 44% of visible notional.
$246880
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $82970 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$82970
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 104 contracts traded, $49552 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$49552
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $42075 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$42075
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 49 contracts traded, $34220 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$34220
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close861.63
1W+0.3%
RS21.8
Fair value+88.6%
Options pressure-11
Speculation9
Volatility52
Trend fit88
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:14
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 7.3%
30 Jul 10:11
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 7.2%
30 Jul 15:08
Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 6.9%
30 Jul 17:47
Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 6.9%
30 Jul 19:35
Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 6.6%
31 Jul 03:10
Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 6.9%
31 Jul 05:19
Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 6.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike360.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 23
Strike370.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike380.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike390.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike400.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike410.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike420.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike430.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts152
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.70
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.63
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts132
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.17
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts118
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.41
Skew0.01
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.37
Skew-0.01
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.38
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCASY260821P00780000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike780.00
Volume46
OI166
IV0.36
ContractCASY260821P00800000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike800.00
Volume41
OI47
IV0.32
ContractCASY260821C01060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1060.00
Volume20
OI46
IV0.25
ContractCASY260821C00920000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike920.00
Volume18
OI205
IV0.36
ContractCASY261120C00750000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike750.00
Volume16
OI25
IV0.38
ContractCASY260821P00820000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike820.00
Volume11
OI59
IV0.33
ContractCASY260918C00900000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike900.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.41
ContractCASY260821C00860000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike860.00
Volume5
OI118
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.